长江流域资源与环境 >> 2010, Vol. 19 >> Issue (12): 1392-.

• 自然资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

1951年来洪泽湖流域面雨量变化特征与趋势分析

叶正伟,李宗花   

  1. (1. 江苏省环洪泽湖生态农业生物技术重点实验室,江苏 淮安 223300;2.淮阴师范学院计算机科学与技术学院,江苏 淮安 223300;3.南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,江苏 南京 210093)
  • 出版日期:2010-12-20

CHARACTERISTICS AND TREND OF AREAL PRECIPITATION INTHE HONGZE LAKE CATCHMENT SINCE 1951

YE Zhengwei1,3|LI Zonghua2   

  1. (1.Jiangsu Key Laboratory for EcoAgricultural Biotechnology Around Hongze Lake,Huai’an 223300|China;2.School of Computer Science and Technology, Huaiyin Normal University,Huai’an 223300,China;3.School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093,China)〖
  • Online:2010-12-20

摘要:

降雨是诱发洪涝灾害的主要因素,降雨特性的研究对流域洪涝风险防范具有重要意义。采用距平分析、MannKendall检验和重标极差R/S分形分析等方法,对1951年来洪泽湖流域年面雨量的变化特性和趋势进行分析。结果表明:在气候变暖的影响下,近58 a来流域年雨量波动幅度较大,面雨量总体呈现增加的趋势,但增加趋势不显著,面雨量异常时往往导致洪涝发生。在变化阶段上,年面雨量经历了1950s到1970s的年代际减小和1980s以来持续增加的两个阶段,且年雨量在1965年和2003年左右出现降雨突变异常并导致严重洪涝灾害。Hurst分形指数为0.538,表明未来流域年面雨量具有持续性和长程记忆效应,雨量仍然呈增加趋势,并具较大随机性,说明未来降雨变化具有较大的不确定性特征。洪泽湖流域降水变化特性和未来变化趋势的规律认识对流域风险防范具有重要意义。

Abstract:

The precipitation is the main factor of the flood,thus the characteristics of areal precipitation plays an important role in the flood risk mitigation for a river basin.The method of anomaly analysis,MannKendall test and Rescaled Range Analysis were applied to detect the changing characteristics and the future trend of the areal rainfall in the Hongze Lake catchment.Results show that the areal rainfall fluctuated greatly and underwent an insignificant upward trend in the recent 58 years since 1951.The areal rainfall in the Hongze Lake catchment decreased from 1950s to 1970s firstly, and then increased from 1980s to the present which could be a regional response to the global warming.Climatic jump occurred in 1956 and 2003 which resulted in a big catchments wide flood,indicating that the anomalies of the rainfall might be responsible for the flood in the Hongze Lake catchment. Furthermore,Hurst index of Rescaled Range Analysis is 0.538,which implies that the future tendency will maintain its current upward trend and it may have a random increasing trend demonstrating the uncertainty of the future precipitation.The understanding of the characteristics of precipitation and its future trend may be of great importance for the flood risk reduction in the Hongze Lake catchment.

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