南水北调中线水源区与海河受水区旱涝遭遇研究

长江流域资源与环境 >> 2010, Vol. 19 >> Issue (8): 940-.

南水北调中线水源区与海河受水区旱涝遭遇研究

张利平^1|2| 秦琳琳¹| 张迪¹| 曾思栋^1

（1.武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室|湖北武汉 430072；2.中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所|湖北武汉 430074）

出版日期:2010-08-20

DROUGHTWATERLOGGING ENCOUNTER PROBABILITY RESEARCH BETWEEN〖JP〗 THE WATER SOURCE AREA AND WATER RECEIVING AREAS IN THE MIDDLE ROUTE OF SOUTHTONORTH WATER TRANSFER PROJECT

ZHANG Liping^1,2, QIN Linlin¹, ZHANG Di¹, ZENG Sidong^1

(1.State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Sciences,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072|China|2.Wuhan Institute of Heavy Rain,China Meterological Administration,Wuhan 430074,China)

Online:2010-08-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

南水北调中线工程水源区与受水区的旱涝遭遇性是跨流域水资源调配与管理运行的重要依据。利用我国近500 a旱涝等级历史资料和近几十年的实测雨量资料，进行了南水北调工程水源区与海河受水区历史旱涝特征分析，并采用集对分析法对水源区与海河受水区的旱涝遭遇进行了研究。结果表明: 南水北调中线水源区与海河受水区历史上旱涝灾害频发，持续性旱涝灾害严重，近3个世纪以来旱涝灾害发生次数和程度都呈现出增加的趋势。水源区与海河受水区旱涝的联系度很低，两个区域的旱涝状态同步性比较差，旱涝遭遇情况对工程调水有利的几率为567%，对工程调水不利的几率为2488%。因此，要使南水北调工程发挥最大效益和价值，还需要其他水利工程配合进行合理调控。

Abstract:

The droughtwaterlogging encounter probability of water source area and receiving area in the Middle Route of SouthtoNorth Water Transfer Project is the important basis of water resources adjustment and cooperation.The set pair analysis was applied to research the droughtwaterlogging encounter probability of water source area and Hai river receiving area based on the droughtwaterlogging grade data from 1470 to 1979 and measured precipitation data from 1980 to 2000.The results showed that the droughtwaterlogging disaster occured frequently,the continuous hazards were serious,and it had an increasing tendency of the droughtwaterlogging disaster frequency and degree in recent three centuries.For the droughtwaterlogging state between water source area and Hai river receiving area,the connection degree was very low and the synchronization was also relatively poor,the profitable frequency of the droughtwaterlogging encounter for water transfer was 567%，and the disadvantageous frequency was 24.88%.In order to enhance the effectiveness and reliability of the Middle Route of SouthtoNorth Water Transfer Project,we should enhance the ability of water resources adjustment and cooperation with other water resources projects to ensure the water security of receiving areas.〖

张利平,秦琳琳,张迪,曾思栋. 南水北调中线水源区与海河受水区旱涝遭遇研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2010, 19(8): 940-.

ZHANG Li-Beng, QIN Lin-Lin, ZHANG Di, CENG Sai-Dong. DROUGHTWATERLOGGING ENCOUNTER PROBABILITY RESEARCH BETWEEN〖JP〗 THE WATER SOURCE AREA AND WATER RECEIVING AREAS IN THE MIDDLE ROUTE OF SOUTHTONORTH WATER TRANSFER PROJECT[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2010, 19(8): 940-.

参考文献

Metrics

Viewed

Full text

Abstract

Cited

Shared

Discussed

推荐阅读 10

[1]	陈勇,陈国阶,杨定国. 岷江上游聚落分布规律及其生态特征——以四川理县为例[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2004, 13(1): 72 -77 .
[2]	陈正洪,万素琴,毛以伟. 三峡库区复杂地形下的降雨时空分布特点分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2005, 14(5): 623 -627 .
[3]	张磊,董立新,吴炳方,周万村. 三峡水库建设前后库区10年土地覆盖变化[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2007, 16(1): 107 -112 .
[4]	张政, 付融冰\| 杨海真, 顾国维. 水量衡算条件下人工湿地对有机物的去除[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2007, 16(3): 363 .
[5]	禹娜,陈立侨,赵泉鸿. 太湖介形类动物丰度与生物量[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2008, 17(4): 546 .
[6]	孔令强. 水电工程农村移民入股安置模式初探[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2008, 17(2): 185 .
[7]	许素芳,周寅康. 开发区土地利用的可持续性评价及实践研究——以芜湖经济技术开发区为例[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2006, 15(4): 453 -457 .
[8]	郝汉舟, 靳孟贵, 曹李靖, 谢先军. 模糊数学在水质综合评价中的应用[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2006, 15(Sup1): 83 -87 .
[9]	于苏俊,张继,夏永秋. 基于遗传算法的可持续土地利用动态规划[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2006, 15(2): 180 -184 .
[10]	刘耀彬, 李仁东. 现阶段湖北省经济发展的地域差异分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2004, 13(1): 12 -17 .