长江流域资源与环境 >> 2023, Vol. 32 >> Issue (10): 2147-2157.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202310013

• 生态环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

江苏省碳达峰路径及其对能源与水资源影响的研究

周元春1,2,马姝1,魏彬1,文婷3   

  1. (1.南京财经大学经济学院, 江苏 南京 210023;2.南京财经大学绿色经济发展研究院,江苏 南京 210023; 3.南京财经大学工商管理学院,江苏 南京 210023)
  • 出版日期:2023-10-20 发布日期:2023-10-26

Pathway and Impact on Energy and Water Resource of Carbon Emission Peak in Jiangsu Province

ZHOU Yuan-chun1,2, MA Shu1, WEI Bin1, WEN Ting3   

  1. (1.School of Economics, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, Nanjing 210023, China;2.Green Economy Development Institute, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, Nanjing 210023, China;3.School of Business Administration, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, Nanjing 210023, China)
  • Online:2023-10-20 Published:2023-10-26

摘要: 作为温室气体排放量高且受气候变化影响大的经济大省,江苏省赶在全国之前实现碳达峰是其应承担的责任和义务。基于LEAP和WEAP模型,构建了自下而上的江苏省能源与水资源耦合模型,探索了江苏省潜在的碳达峰路径以及不同路径选择对能源和水资源的影响。结果显示:(1)在产业结构调整、能源强度降低、推广清洁能源使用以及电力结构优化的综合政策情景下,江苏省可于2028年实现快速碳达峰,主要减排贡献来自于工业和交通运输业。(2)产业结构调整和能源强度降低可带来4 380万t标煤的节能效应。(3)气候变化将会加剧水资源在不同部门间的竞争性使用,而产业结构调整、能源强度降低、推广清洁能源使用和电力结构优化等措施可以缓解不同部门的水资源压力,快速达峰情景可以带来11.8%的节水效应。

Abstract: As one of the top greenhouse gas emitters, Jiangsu province is also severely affected by climate change. Hence, Jiangsu province should take the responsibility and obligation to achieve carbon peak ahead of the national plan. Based on the LEAP and WEAP models, this paper constructs a bottom-up model for energy and water resources synergistic management, which is used to explore the potential carbon peaking paths in Jiangsu Province and its impacts on energy and water resources. The results show that: (1) Under the comprehensive policy scenario of industrial structure adjustment, energy intensity reduction, promotion of clean energy use, and power structure optimization, Jiangsu province can achieve a rapid carbon emission peak in 2028, and the main contribution to emission reduction comes from industrial and transportation sectors. (2) The adjustment of industrial structure and the reduction of energy intensity can bring about 43.8 million tons of standard coal of energy-saving effect. (3) Climate change will intensify the competitive use of water resources in different sectors, while industrial restructuring, energy intensity reduction, promotion of clean energy use and power structure optimization, and other measures can alleviate the pressure on water resources in different sectors. The fast peak-reaching scenario can bring some 11.8% of water-saving effect.


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