Abstract: Peaking carbon dioxide emissions is a key measure for China to cope with the global climate crisis. According to the logic framework of theory-model-demonstration and theoretical analysis，this study constructs the system dynamics model of urban carbon dioxide emissions based on land use and economic development，and carries out multi-scenario simulation of urban carbon dioxide emissions peak in Jiangsu province. It is found that：（1）The economic aggregate and structure of Jiangsu province will continue to grow and optimize in the future. Increasing investment in tertiary industry can effectively promote the upgrading of industrial structure，but it will reduce the economic growth rate.（2）Urban land is increasing，but its growth force is weakening. Under the scenario of carbon dioxide emissions reduction，the total amount of urban construction land will reach a peak of 5 514.96 km² in 2033，showing a phenomenon of urban contraction.（3）Industrial structure and energy efficiency optimization can reduce the demand for urban energy consumption，but it still keeps growing. Under the scenario of carbon dioxide emissions reduction，Jiangsu can achieve a peak of 657.9 million tons carbon dioxide emissions in 2025 at the earliest. Compared with the continuous increase of carbon dioxide emissions，the existing carbon sink land has a limited role in achieving the goal of carbon dioxide emissions peak. Thus，in view of the main factors affecting the realization of carbon dioxide emissions peak，several policy suggestions are put forward. While stabilizing economic growth，we should reduce energy demand and loss of carbon sink land，by improving energy and land use efficiency，accelerate technological innovation and optimize energy supply structure to achieve a peak in carbon dioxide emissions.