长江流域资源与环境 >> 2024, Vol. 33 >> Issue (11): 2342-2355.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202411003

• 区域可持续发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

长三角城市群绿色增长效率的时空分异与重心迁移

徐小鹰,陆菁菁   

  1. (中南民族大学经济学院,湖北 武汉 430074)
  • 出版日期:2024-11-20 发布日期:2024-11-27

Spatial and Temporal Differentiation of Green Growth Efficiency and Center of Gravity Migration in Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations

XU Xiao-ying,LU Jing-jing   

  1. (School of Economics, South-Central Minzu University, Wuhan 430074, China)
  • Online:2024-11-20 Published:2024-11-27

摘要:  绿色增长效率是准确判断与评价绿色转型绩效的重要评价指标。借助全局Super-SBM-Undesirable模型测度长三角城市群26个城市2006~2021年的绿色增长效率值,采用变异系数、熵值法、三维Kernel核密度和重心模型,分析和评价其时空分异特征与重心迁移过程,再利用BP神经网络模型预测绿色增长效率值2022~2027年的走势。结果表明:(1)研究期内,长三角城市群各城市绿色增长效率值均有显著提高,总体绿色增长效率值总体呈现逐年上升态势,市域和省域间的效率存在极化现象,但总体差异在逐渐减小,绿色增长高效率城市数量增加,分布逐渐密集;(2)各城市效率值“升级”趋势显著,绿色增长高效率区的空间集聚性增强,大致表现为从东西两端高值离散分布向内及四周扩散分布,最终形成多个块状绿色增长高效率区;(3)绿色增长效率重心大致分布在中部城市群,东部和西部城市的效率差异大于南部与北部城市的效率差异,城市间绿色增长效率极化现象逐渐减弱,绿色增长效率重心的迁移距离也随之降低;(4)预测结果显示,长三角城市群在未来6年仍保持较好的绿色增长水平,逐年增幅较小,仍存在提升空间。文末依据绿色增长效率区域特征,对提升长三角城市群绿色增长效率作出相关建议。

Abstract: Green growth efficiency is an important evaluation index to accurately judge and evaluate the performance of green transition. The article measured the green growth efficiency values of 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations from 2006 to 2021, by using the global Super-SBM-Undesirable model. The coefficient of variation, entropy value method, three-dimensional Kernel density and center of gravity model were adopted to analyze the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and the center of gravity migration process. The BP neural network model was used to predict the future trend of green growth efficiency in 2022-2027. The results showed that: (1) During the study period, there was a significant increase in green growth efficiency across all cities in the study area. The overall green growth efficiency showed an overall upward trend year by year. There was a polarization phenomenon in the efficiency between cities and provinces, but the overall difference was gradually decreasing. The number of cities in the high green growth efficiency zones increased and the distribution became gradually dense. (2)Each city's efficiency value exhibited a noticeable upgrading trend. Spatially, high-efficiency areas of green growth demonstrated enhanced agglomeration patterns. This was observed as discrete distribution shifting from both eastern and western ends towards inward and peripheral regions, which ultimately formed multiple extensive zones characterized by high levels of green growth efficiency. (3) The center of gravity of green growth efficiency was roughly distributed in the central cities, and the efficiency difference between the eastern and western cities was larger than that between the southern and northern cities. The polarization of green growth efficiency between cities gradually weakened, and the migration distance of the center of green growth efficiency also decreased. (4) The forecast results showed that the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations would maintain a good level of green growth in the next six years. There existed room for improvement with a small annual growth rate. Finally, based on the regional characteristics of green growth efficiency, relevant suggestions were put forward to improve the green growth efficiency of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations.

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