长江流域资源与环境 >> 2024, Vol. 33 >> Issue (12): 2577-2590.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202412003

• 区域可持续发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国五大城市群韧性水平区域差异与时空演进研究


焦柳丹,谭琪麟*,张羽,霍小森
  

  1. (重庆交通大学经济与管理学院, 重庆 400074)
  • 出版日期:2024-12-20 发布日期:2024-12-27

Regional Differences and Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Resilience Level of Five Major Urban Agglomerations in China

JIAO Liu-dan,TAN Qi-lin,ZHANG Yu,HUO Xiao-sen   

  1. (School of Economics and Management, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China)
  • Online:2024-12-20 Published:2024-12-27

摘要: 随着国家城镇化进程的不断加快,城市群作为城市发展的新型空间集聚形式,已逐渐成为我国促进城市高质量发展的新驱动力。因此,科学评价城市群韧性水平能够对城市群的建设提供决策依据。通过综合运用超效率SBM模型、空间向量模型以及木桶理论,建立了城市群韧性水平分析模型,其次使用Dagum基尼系数、Kernel密度估计及Markov链法分析了城市群韧性水平的区域差异及时空演进趋势。最后,选取了国内5大城市群作为研究案例。研究结果显示:省会及直辖城市的抵抗与恢复能力建设呈现两级分化态势,而适应及综合韧性建设均比较良好;五大城市群韧性水平存在明显东高西低,沿海高于内陆的整体空间格局,其中京津冀城市群均值韧性最低,群内短板效应最为明显;除京津城市群外其他城市群内部基尼系数差异均有所下降,京津冀和成渝城市群之间韧性水平差异最为明显;造成五大城市群总体差距的主要原因是超变密度差异;五大城市群总体韧性水平离散程度呈缩小趋势,但依然存在明显的马太效应,考虑空间因素后的京津冀城市群存在明显的空间溢出效应。

Abstract: With the continuous acceleration of urbanization in China, urban agglomerations, as a new form of spatial agglomeration for urban development, have gradually become a new driving force for promoting high-quality urban development. Therefore, scientific evaluation of the resilience level of urban agglomerations can provide references for the decision-making process. By comprehensively applying the super-efficient SBM model, spatial vector model and barrel theory, this study established an analytical model for the resilience level of urban agglomerations. Subsequently, the Dagum's Gini coefficient, Kernel's density estimation and Markov's chain method were used to analyze the regional differences and spatial and temporal evolution trends of the resilience level of urban agglomeration. Finally, five major urban agglomerations in China were selected as research cases for empirical study. The results showed that the resistance and resilience capacity of provincial capitals and municipalities directly under the central government presented a two-level differentiation trend, while the adaptation and comprehensive resilience construction were relatively good; The resilience level of the five major urban agglomerations showed a clear overall spatial pattern of high in the east and low in the west, with coastal areas higher than inland areas. Among them, the average resilience of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomerations was the lowest, and the weak board effect within the agglomeration was the most obvious; Except for the Beijing-Tianjin urban agglomeration, the differences in Gini coefficients within other urban agglomerations had decreased, with the most significant differences in resilience levels between the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomerations; The overall resilience level of the five major urban agglomerations showed a decreasing trend in dispersion, but there was still a significant Matthew effect. By considering spatial factors, there existed a significant spatial spillover effect in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.

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