Abstract: In order to assist in implementing polices of carbon emission reduction and sink enhancement, the predictions of carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality at the provincial scale is essential. Taking the provincial administrative regions of China as the study cases, this paper calculated the carbon budget from 2005 to 2019. The STIRPAT model was utilized to investigate the variables affecting carbon emissions. Carbon emissions from 2020 to 2060 was forecasted. The results in terms of the peak time and value of carbon emission and the degree of carbon neutrality were compared for different scenarios including the Inertial Development Scenario, Planning Control Scenario, Peaking Constraint Scenario, and Green Development Scenario. The conclusions were as follows: (1) Carbon emission at the provincial scale in China showed a spatial pattern of high in the north and low in the south, high in the east and low in the west, with a fluctuating upward trend over time. Carbon sequestration was relatively stable and growing slowly, with a spatial pattern of high in the west and low in the east. (2) Population, urbanization rate, and per capita GDP were the main factors affecting carbon emissions, followed by industrial structure and energy intensity, while with energy structure and carbon intensity did not play a significant role. (3) The Green Development Scenario was the optimal scenario, under which all provinces could reach the carbon emission peak from 2020 to 2023 and achieve carbon neutrality at the national level in 2060. It was suggested that in the future, differentiated carbon emission reduction policies should be formulated in the light of the economic development level and the actual situation of different provinces. The tailored pathways to achieve carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality should be explored to promote the realization of the targets of “carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality” based on regionally coordinated emission reduction and equitable development.