长江流域资源与环境 >> 2025, Vol. 34 >> Issue (11): 2433-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202511005

• 区域可持续发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

生态—经济社会系统耦合视角下苏州市碳汇绩效评估与对策建议

王宝强1, 陈琦1, 张艺宣2,周新刚3,4   

  1. (1. 苏州科技大学建筑与城市规划学院,江苏 苏州 215009;2. 广州应用科技学院肇庆校区,广东 肇庆 526072;3. 同济大学建筑与城市规划学院,上海 200092;4. 自然资源部国土空间智能规划技术重点实验室,上海 200092)
  • 出版日期:2025-11-20 发布日期:2025-11-20

Carbon Sink Performance Evaluation and Policy Recommendations from the Perspective of Ecological-economic-social System Coupling in Suzhou City

WANG Bao-qiang1,CHEN Qi1,ZHANG Yi-xuan2,ZHOU Xin-gang 3,4   

  1. (1.Suzhou University of Science and Technology,Suzhou 215009,China;2.  Guangzhou Institute of Applied Science and Technology,Zhaoqing 511370,China; 3. Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China; 4. Key Laboratory of Intelligent Planning Technology for Territorial Space of the Ministry of Natural Resources,Shanghai 200092,China)
  • Online:2025-11-20 Published:2025-11-20

摘要:  城市碳汇变化是城镇化快速发展过程人类经济社会发展系统和自然生态系统耦合的结果。城市碳汇能力巩固提升是实现碳中和的重要路径之一,从人工系统与自然系统耦合交互的关系评估城市碳汇绩效有助于精准提出碳汇能力巩固提升的路径。以高密度快速城镇化地区苏州市为例,采用InVEST模型对2002、2008、2013、2021年4个年份不同经济社会发展政策导向下的碳汇量进行时空尺度变化测度,通过标准差椭圆分析及重心迁移分析碳汇的空间演变规律,运用地理探测器探讨影响碳汇量变化的关键因素,从生态、经济、社会3个维度评估经济社会发展过程中的碳汇绩效。结果显示苏州市生态碳汇空间分布呈现“高值南部集聚,中低值交错分布”的特点,碳汇的经济效益与社会效益持续增强,政策实施效果明显,但碳中和压力仍然较大。根据研究结果,从生态碳汇格局构建、划定碳汇单元、分解碳汇指标3个方面提出碳汇总量提升、质量优化与保障实施的碳汇绩效优化对策,可为水网地区碳汇效能优化与提升、实现碳中和目标提供参考。

Abstract: The change of urban carbon sink is the result of the coupling of human economic and social development system and natural ecosystem in the process of rapid urbanization. The consolidation and improvement of urban carbon sink capacity is one of the important ways to achieve carbon neutrality. Evaluating urban carbon sink performance from the coupling and interaction relationship between artificial system and natural system can help accurately propose the consolidation and improvement path of carbon sink capacity. Taking Suzhou City,a high-density and rapid urbanization area,as an example,based on the InVEST model,the carbon sink among 2002,2008,2013 and 2021 under the guidance of four different economic and social development policies was measured on a spatial-temporal scale. The spatial evolution law of carbon sink was analyzed through standard deviation ellipse analysis and gravity shift,and the key factors affecting the change of carbon sink were discussed by using geographic detector. Finally,the carbon sink performance in the process of economic and social development was evaluated from the three dimensions of ecology,economy and society. The results showed that the spatial distribution of ecological carbon sinks in Suzhou presented the characteristics of "high value southern cluster,medium and low value staggered distribution". The economic and social benefits of carbon sinks continued to increase,and the policy implementation effect was obvious,but the pressure of carbon neutrality was still large. According to the results of the study,carbon sinks performance optimization countermeasures for total carbon sink improvement,quality optimization and guarantee implementation are proposed from three aspects: ecological carbon sink pattern construction,carbon sink unit delineation,decomposition index strengthening monitoring,which can provide useful reference for the optimization and improvement of carbon sink efficiency in water network areas and the realization of carbon neutrality.

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