长江流域资源与环境 >> 2025, Vol. 34 >> Issue (4): 705-720.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202504001

• 区域可持续发展 •    下一篇

长江经济带县域碳排放强度的动态演进、差异分解及空间集聚模式演变

辛冲冲1,李玉姣2,3,张帅4*   

  1. (1.北京市社会科学院 《北京社会科学》编辑部,北京 100101;2.河北经贸大学财政税务学院,河北 石家庄 050061;3.河北经贸大学京津冀协同发展河北省协同创新中心,河北 石家庄 050061;4.长安大学经济与管理学院,陕西 西安 710064)
  • 出版日期:2025-04-20 发布日期:2025-04-29

Dynamic Evolution, Differential Decomposition and Spatial Agglomeration Pattern Evolution of County Carbon Emission Intensity in Yangtze River Economic Belt

XIN Chong-chong1,LI Yu-jiao2,3, ZHANG Shuai4    

  1. (1. Editorial Department of Beijing Social Sciences, Beijing Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;2. School of Finance and Taxation, Hebei University of Economics and Business, Shijiazhuang 050061, China; 3. Hebei Coordinated Innovation Center for BTH Coordinated Development, Hebei University of Economics and Business, Shijiazhuang 050061, China;4.College of Economics and Management,Chang'an University,Xian 710064, China)
  • Online:2025-04-20 Published:2025-04-29

摘要: 长江经济带生态文明建设与低碳转型是中国经济高质量发展的重点任务。基于2005~2019年长江经济带1 069个区县碳排放强度数据,综合运用核密度估计、Dagum基尼系数、标准差椭圆及探索性空间数据分析等统计方法考察了长江经济带地区碳排放强度的发展趋势和空间特征。研究发现:(1)长江经济带所辖区县碳排放强度总体均呈稳步下行态势,其离散程度和绝对差异也均有下降,绝对差异有所缩小,其中长江经济带整体与上中下游所辖区县的碳排放强度均存在多极分化现象但趋于弱化。(2)长江经济带所辖区县碳排放强度的总体差异呈下降趋势,地区不均衡程度总体居于高位但有所缓解,其总体差异的主要贡献来源是超变密度,平均贡献率近40%,其次是地区内差异,平均贡献率约为33%,最后是地区间差异。(3)长江经济带县域尺度碳排放强度的区位分布呈偏东北-偏西南走向的空间格局,其分布重心表现为先向西南再折返向西北的趋势。局域空间集聚模式主要是以“低-低”型集聚为主,其集聚的区县较多且主要集中连片分布在长江经济带上游的四川东部和重庆西南部、中游的湖南和江西大部及湖北大部。基于此,应从因地制宜、因城施策推进减排降碳工作,增强区县间的空间联动性和协调性,优化政府考核评价体系与完善监督问责机制等方面着力,协同助力长江经济带高质量发展。

Abstract: The construction of ecological civilization and low-carbon transformation in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) are the key tasks of high-quality economic development in China. Based on the data of carbon emission intensity of 1 069 counties in the YREB from 2005 to 2019, the development trend and spatial characteristics of carbon emission intensity were investigated using statistical methods of nuclear density estimation, Dagum Gini coefficient, standard deviation ellipse and exploratory spatial data analysis. The results showed that: (1) The carbon emission intensity of the counties under the jurisdiction of the YREB generally showed a steady downward trend. The  dispersion degree and absolute difference had also decreased, and the absolute difference had narrowed. The carbon emission intensity of the YREB as a whole and the counties under the jurisdiction of the upper, middle and lower reaches demonstrated multipolar polarization, but tended to weaken. (2) The overall difference of carbon emission intensity in counties under the jurisdiction of the YREB showed a downward trend, and the degree of regional imbalance was generally at a high level. The main contribution source of the overall difference is the hypervariable density, with an average contribution rate of nearly 40%, followed by the intra-regional difference, with an average contribution rate of about 33%, and finally the inter-regional difference. (3) The regional distribution of carbon emission intensity at county levels showed a spatial pattern of northeast-southwest trend, and its distribution center of gravity showed a trend of first towards southwest and then turning back to northwest. The mode of local spatial agglomeration was mainly "low-low" agglomeration, with more districts and counties mainly distributed in eastern Sichuan and southwestern Chongqing in the upper reaches of the YREB, majority of Hunan and Jiangxi in the middle reaches and majority of Hubei. Based on this, efforts should be made to promote emission and carbon reduction according to local conditions and urban policies. This aims to enhance the spatial linkage and coordination between districts and counties, and to optimize the government assessment and supervision and accountability mechanism to jointly help the high-quality development of the YREB.

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