长江流域资源与环境 >> 2026, Vol. 35 >> Issue (2): 536-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202602020

• 自然灾害 • 上一篇    

震后泥石流防治工程治理效果分析及减灾能力预测——以七盘沟为例

苏娜1,2,徐林荣1,2,李永威1,2,吴红刚3   

  1. (1.中南大学土木工程学院,湖南 长沙 410075;2.中南大学高速铁路建造技术国家工程研究中心,湖南 长沙 410075;
    3.中铁西北科学研究院有限公司,甘肃 兰州 620100)
  • 出版日期:2026-02-20 发布日期:2026-02-26

Evaluation and Prediction of the Function of the Blocking Structures of the Debris Flow Post-Earthquake: A Case Study of Qipan Gully

SU Na1, XU Lin-rong1,2, BO Yang3, LI Yong-wei1   

  1. (1.School of Civil Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410075, China
    2.National Engineering Research Center of High-speed Railway Construction Techology, Central South University, Changsha 410075, China)
  • Online:2026-02-20 Published:2026-02-26

摘要: 5.12汶川特大地震发生后,震区山体表面产生大量碎屑物,植被遭到严重破坏,为泥石流暴发提供了丰富的物质来源。相关研究发现,震后泥石流物源前期主要与山体上坡面物质有关,而后期受沟道内物质控制。然而沟道内修建的防治工程会阻断泥石流运移的连贯性,导致泥石流暴发的频率和规模大幅度降低,同时坝后淤积会导致坝体调控显著降低。为了深入探究震后泥石流防治工程的治理效果的动态变化特征,该研究以汶川县七盘沟为例,对2013、2017、2018和2019年不同年份泥石流暴发时的冲出规模所涉及的相关参数进行分析,进而采用 FLO-2D模型对流域内不同防治工程状态进行模拟分析,平均模拟精度达90.68%。在此基础上,针对2019年治理工程现状考虑1#坝正常工作与被淤积拦挡坝在不同降雨重现周期(10、20、50年一遇)的冲出量进行减灾能力预测。研究可为高烈度山区日益增加的重大工程提供减灾建议,以期最大限度地保护人民的生命和财产安全。

Abstract: The Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008, severely destroyed surface vegetation and caused plenty of accumulation of loose deposition, which provided abundant provenance for debris flow and increased the risk of debris flow.Previous studies revealed that the provenance of the debris flows post-earthquake was a characteristic of dynamic variation.In consideration of the blocking structures constructed in the disaster area, the risk of debris flow was generally influenced by both natural and human factors.In this study, the Qipan gully in Wenchuan County was selected as an example and field investigation, Quick-bird remote sensing and FLO-2D software were comprehensively used to analyze the dynamic variation of the provenance of debris flow and predict the risk of debris flow both without blocking structures in 2013 and with blocking structures from 2017 to 2019 under various rainfall recurrence intervals of 10 years, 20 years and 50 years.The interpretation of the remote sensing images verified the gradual variation of the main provenance of the debris flows from slope deposits (2008-2013) to gully accumulation thereafter.In addition, the estimate of accumulation depth and outrush volume proved the extreme significance of construction and timely dredging of blocking structures in the decrease of disaster risk of debris flow.The ultimate purpose of this study was to provide a theoretical basis and technical reference to prevent or mitigate disaster risk for the increasing engineering activities in high-intensity seismic areas in the future

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