长江流域资源与环境 >> 2013, Vol. 22 >> Issue (11): 1348-.

• 生态环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

近52年江西省汛期极端降水事件的时空变化

马锋敏 |章毅之 |唐传师 |张超美 |张传江   

  1. (1.江西省气候中心|江西 南昌 330046;2. 南昌市气象局|江西 南昌 330038)
  • 出版日期:2013-10-20

TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL VARIATIONS OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN FLOOD SEASON OF JIANGXI IN RECENT 52 YEARS

MA Fengmin1|ZHANG Yizhi1|TANG Chuanshi2 |ZHANG Chaomei1|ZHANG Chuanjiang1   

  1. (1.Jiangxi Provincial Climate Center|Nanchang 330046,China|2.Nanchang Municipal Meteorological Bureau|Nanchang 330038,China
  • Online:2013-10-20

摘要:

利用江西省1960~2011年汛期83个台站逐日降水资料,首先定义了不同台站的极端降水阈值,统计各站近52a逐年汛期极端降水事件的发生频次,进而分析其时空分布特征。结果表明:江西省极端降水量阈值的地域分布呈从西到东、从南到北递增的特征。江西汛期极端降水事件发生频次的最主要空间模态是主体一致性,同时存在北部与中南部反位相变化的差异。江西汛期极端降水事件发生频次具有较大的空间差异,可分为具有不同空间特征的5个主要区域。滑动t检验表明,Ⅰ区代表站玉山的极端降水事件在1976年后和1986年后分别发生了由偏多转为偏少和由偏少转为偏多的突变;Ⅱ区代表站永丰在1974年后和1984年后分别发生了由偏少转为偏多和由偏多到偏少的突变。通过最大熵谱分析表明,各分区以2~6 a的年际变化周期最为普遍,其中Ⅴ区还存在13 a的年代际变化周期。从气候因子分析看,前期5~6月和冬季赤道东太平洋海温对江西汛期极端降水事件存在显著影响

Abstract:

Based on the daily precipitation data in the flood seasons (from April to June) During 1960-2011 from 83 stations in Jiangxi Province,the extreme precipitation threshold values for all stations were determined firstly.Taking 95 percentiles as threshold value of precipitation events,the extreme precipitation event frequency in flood season was counted and their temporal and spatial characteristics were analyzed by use of five main methods including EOF,REOF,trend analysis,moving ttest analysis and Maximum Entropy Spectral analysis.The results showed that geographical distribution of extreme precipitation threshold was characterized by increasing from west to east and from south to north in Jiangxi province.The frequency of extreme precipitation event was 3-5 times,and most regions was about 4 time.The areas in which the extreme precipitation events often occurred were mainly concentrated along the ZhejiangJiangxi railway.The average frequency of extreme precipitation in flood season of Jiangxi appeared to be a growth trend,and it also showed a large interannual difference.The extremely precipitation events frequency anomaly in flood season over Jiangxi was positive in early 1960s,from late 1960s to mid1970s,in middle and late 1990s,and was negative in mid1960s,from late 1970s to early 1980s,from midlate 1980s to early 1990s.EOF analysis showed that the ratio of the front 5 eigenvectors with the contributing rate of cumulative sums of squared was 63.8%,which passed the significant level test according to the NORTH method.Consistent anomaly distribution was the main spatial mode of extreme precipitation event frequency in Jiangxi Province,and the variance contribution rate of the first mode was 34.5%.The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation event frequency was complex with anomaly difference between the north and the midsouth of Jiangxi.REOF analysis manifested that extreme precipitation fields in Jiangxi could be divided into five main regions.In all of the representative stations,region Ⅰ did not have a very significant growth or decline change,but it came through fewmorefew change; region Ⅱ,region Ⅲ and region Ⅴ had a rather weak growth trend; region Ⅳ had a rather weak decline trend in the recent 52 years.The moving ttest analysis showed that two of the five subregions appeared significant abrupt changes in extreme precipitation frequency.There were abrupt changes in Yushan in 1976 and 1986,and Yongfeng in 1974 and 1984 for the extreme precipitation event frequency.The other three representative stations did not have significant abrupt changes in extreme precipitation frequency.The Maximum Entropy Spectral analysis showed that 65 and 26 years period was significant in region I; 2—4 years period was significant in region Ⅱ; the major notable cycle was basically the same in regions Ⅲ and Ⅳ,including main periods of 3—4 years; 3.2 years period of interannual variation and 13 years period of interdecadal variation were significant in region V.The preceding SST over equator east Pacific Ocean had significant impact on extreme precipitation events in flood season of Jiangxi.The extreme precipitation event frequency in flood season had obviously isotopic distribution with the preceding MayJune and winter SST over equator east Pacific Ocean

No related articles found!
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed   
[1] 李 娜,许有鹏, 陈 爽. 苏州城市化进程对降雨特征影响分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2006, 15(3): 335 -339 .
[2] 曾慧卿. 近40年气候变化对江西自然植被净第一性生产力的影响[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2008, 17(2): 227 .
[3] 孙维侠, 赵永存, 黄 标, 廖菁菁, 王志刚, 王洪杰. 长三角典型地区土壤环境中Se的空间变异特征及其与人类健康的关系[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2008, 17(1): 113 .
[4] 徐祖信,叶建锋. 前置库技术在水库水源地面源污染控制中的应用[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2005, 14(6): 792 -795 .
[5] 张青青,张世熔,李婷,张林,林晓利,. 基于多元数据的景观格局演变及其影响因素——以流沙河流域宜东段为例[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2006, 15(Sup1): 125 -130 .
[6] 周国忠,冯海霞. 浙江省旅游资源地区差异研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2006, 15(2): 157 -163 .
[7] 时连强,李九发,应 铭,左书华,徐海根. 长江口没冒沙演变过程及其对水库工程的响应[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2006, 15(4): 458 -464 .
[8] 梁流涛, 曲福田, 王春华. 基于DEA方法的耕地利用效率分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2008, 17(2): 242 .
[9] 罗璐琴, 周敬宣, 李湘梅. 生态足迹动态预测模型构建与分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2008, 17(3): 440 .
[10] 刘德富,黄钰铃,| 王从锋,. 水工学的发展趋势——从传统水工学到生态水工学[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2007, 16(1): 92 -96 .