长江流域资源与环境 >> 2013, Vol. 22 >> Issue (011): 1466-.

• 自然资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

长江三峡库区和上游气候变化特点及其影响

陈鲜艳|宋连春|郭占峰|高学杰|张 强   

  1. (1. 中国气象科学研究院|北京 100081; 2.中国科学院大学|北京 100049;3. 国家气候中心|北京 100081;4 .中国气象局| 北京 100081
  • 出版日期:2013-11-20

CLIMATE CHANGE OVER THE THREE GORGE RESERVOIR AND UPPER YANGTZE WITH ITS POSSIBLE EFFECT 

CHEN Xianyan1,2,3 ,SONG Lianchun3,GUO Zhanfeng3,GAO Xuejie3,ZHANG Qiang   

  1. (1. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China; 2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China; 3. National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,China|4. China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081|China
  • Online:2013-11-20

摘要:

利用1961~2010年逐日气温、降水等气象观测资料分析三峡库区和长江流域等地区气象要素的气候长期变化趋势,并利用监测资料和数值模拟试验初步分析了水库蓄水后对三峡库区附近局地的天气气候的可能影响。结果表明:近50 a来三峡库区平均气温呈现上升趋势,降水量具有年代际变化特征,21世纪以来库区降水转为少雨期;气温和降水的变化都与长江上游乃至整个长江流域的变化趋势基本一致。水库蓄水后对库区附近气温产生调节作用,夏季降温和冬季增温效应明显;蓄水后库区年降水量没有明显变化。总体上,三峡水库对附近气候影响范围一般不超过20 km

Abstract:

The construction of Three Gorge Dam (TGD) in the end of upper reach of the Yangtze River result in a great beltshape of Three Gorge Reservoir (TGR) in China. Based on the daily meteorological data from 1961 to 2010,the linear climate trends of temperature,precipitation over the TGR were analyzed. The climate variability of the Yangtze River was also investigated to be compared with that of TGR area.The results showed that the temperature was increasing over TGR area,and the precipitation showed obvious decadal variability with a clear decline in rainfall amount after 2001.All the trend and variability of TGR area were in phase with those of the Yangtze River basin,indicating that the climate change of TGR area was under climate background of a wider area.Generally speaking,after the reservoir constructed and impounded,the water area enlarged greatly,and the possible influence on regional climate might stretch from a few miles to hundreds of mile depending on the form of the reservoir and local topography.The Three Gorge Reservoir is a long and narrow reservoir,thus the climate effect is supposed as not obvious as a round one.By the observational data analysis of contrast of temperature changes of areas which were near and far away from the TGR,the temperatures of areas near the reservoir got warmer in winter but got cooling in summer.Analysis with the use of a regional climate model simulation showed that,the reservoir only had a significant effect on the temperature above the water,but the effect on temperature of lands which were close to water decreased dramatically.However,there was no obvious change after TGR impoundment and the impact of TGR on precipitation was not as clear as that on temperature.The impact range of the TGR on the nearby climate was no more than the distance of  20 km.However there was still great uncertainty of the climate models.Numerical models simulation results need more observation data to be validated.It was observed more extreme weather/climate events in recent decades around the globe.Severe droughts occurred just near the TGR area,such as the SichuanChongqing Drought in summer of 2006,the severe Southwest Drought in winter of 2009/2010.Previous studies have revealed that a close relationship between these extreme weather/climate events and the large scale of atmospheric circulation abnormal in East Asia,the changes in Arctic sea ice cover and sea surface temperature,and the QinghaiTibetan Plateau thermal anomaly.Specific geographical environment,particular climate conditions as well as the impact of human activities in the TGR area lead to a great significance of understanding the climate characteristics and climate effect of TGR area.Therefore,it is needed to make continuous climate monitoring and make further impact assessment research in TGR area

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