基于系统动力学-投入产出分析整合方法的江苏省产业用水综合效用分析

doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201601003

长江流域资源与环境 >> 2016, Vol. 25 >> Issue (01): 16-24.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201601003

基于系统动力学-投入产出分析整合方法的江苏省产业用水综合效用分析

沈家耀¹, 张玲玲¹, 王宗志²

1. 河海大学公共管理学院, 江苏南京 211100;
2. 南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家实验室, 江苏南京 210029

收稿日期:2015-04-27 修回日期:2015-06-11 出版日期:2016-01-20
通讯作者: 张玲玲 E-mail:llzhang007@163.com
作者简介:沈家耀(1991~),男,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为水利行政管理.E-mail:958379523@qq.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(51109055, 51279223, 51579064)[National Natural Science Foundation of China (51109055, 51279223, 51579064)];国家软科学基金项目(2014GXS4B047)[The National Soft Science Research Program (2014GXS4B047)];水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目 (201301003, 201201022)[Public-services Foundation of Ministry Water Resources of China (201301003, 201201022)];中央高校基本科研业务费项目 (2015B23314)[Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2015B23314)]

ANALYSIS OF COMPREHENSIVE UTILITY OF WATER UTILIZATION STRUCTURE BASED ON THE INTEGRATION METHODS OF SYSTEM DYNAMIC AND INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS IN JIANGSU PROVINCE

SHEN Jia-yao¹, ZHANG Ling-ling¹, WANG Zong-zhi²

1. Water Management Institute, School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China;
2. Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing 210029, China

Received:2015-04-27 Revised:2015-06-11 Online:2016-01-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 产业用水结构的欠合理一定程度上制约着社会的发展,如何科学评价产业用水情况,取得在经济效益、水资源和环境资源约束下的协调发展已成为目前区域社会经济发展面临与亟待解答的科学问题。以江苏省为例,提出了系统动力学-投入产出分析整合方法,在构建反映产业结构、用水结构和排污结构的互动反馈的水资源综合利用系统动力学模型基础上,通过敏感性分析确定对系统影响较大的关键变量,运用投入产出分析技术,对江苏省各部门用水特性、排污特性和经济效益特性进行计算测度,由此构建了3种产业发展模拟方案。依据系统动力学模型输出结果,对2025年3种方案下的重点产业部门用水综合效用情况进行对比分析,进而优选出"节水治污型"方案,并最后提出保障方案实施的对策建议,为江苏省产业和用水结构调整提供决策依据。

关键词: 系统动力学-投入产出分析整合方法, 产业用水结构, 综合效用, 方案模拟优选

Abstract: The unreasonable water utilization structure of industry restricts the development of society to a certain extent. How to evaluate the circumstance of water utilization of industry scientifically and secure coordinated development under the restriction of economic benefits, water resources and environment resources have become a technical issue that socioeconomic development has faced and with the urgent need to answer. This paper takes Jiangsu province as an example and puts forward the integration methods of system dynamic and input-output analysis. The interactive model of system dynamics of water resources composite utilization was conducted which reflects the structure of industry, water utilization and sewage drainage. We determine the critical variables which affect the system significantly through sensitivity analysis. The technology of input-output analysis was used to analyze the water utilization characteristics, pollution features and economic benefits features to build the simulation schemes of industrial development. Combined with the system dynamics model output, the comprehensive water utility of key industrial sectors in the year 2025 was analyzed and compared under three kinds of development schemes. Furthermore, the program of "water saving and control pollution" was selected as an optimal scheme. Finally, some countermeasures and suggestions were put forward to protect the implementation of the scheme and provide decision-making basis for industrial upgrading and restructuring of water utilization for Jiangsu province.

Key words: integration methods of system dynamic and input-output analysis, water utilization structure of industry, comprehensive utility, scheme simulation and optimization

中图分类号:

F301.24

沈家耀, 张玲玲, 王宗志. 基于系统动力学-投入产出分析整合方法的江苏省产业用水综合效用分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2016, 25(01): 16-24.

SHEN Jia-yao, ZHANG Ling-ling, WANG Zong-zhi. ANALYSIS OF COMPREHENSIVE UTILITY OF WATER UTILIZATION STRUCTURE BASED ON THE INTEGRATION METHODS OF SYSTEM DYNAMIC AND INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS IN JIANGSU PROVINCE[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2016, 25(01): 16-24.

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