江苏省人口城乡结构差异的多尺度研究

doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201601004

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用"全国第四、五、六次人口普查"等数据,基于"多尺度"分析框架,综合运用总体差异测度指数(标准差、锡尔指数及其分解)、马尔可夫链、ESDA等方法,分析1990~2010年江苏省不同尺度人口城乡结构差异的时空动态演化。结果表明:(1)20a来,江苏省人口城乡结构无论绝对差异还是相对差异性在各尺度上均呈缩小趋势,且前10a大幅缩小、后10a缩小幅度减缓。相对差异值及其缩小程度排序均从大到小依次为县域、市域、区域。主要受地区发展基础、增长极的带动能力及范围、政府政策侧重以及人口迁移机制等多种因素差异性的影响。由于三大区域间通过人口流动、交通、产业、资源等的联动效应,因而三大区域间差异的缩小对全省差异缩小的贡献最大。(2)前10a人口城乡结构类型转移概率波动性大,后10a趋向稳定。苏南各市区存在高水平"俱乐部趋同"现象。(3)虽然从区域尺度上看,苏南、苏北两极分化有所缓和,但从县域小尺度上来看,苏北大部分县域与苏南不同县域之间的差距依然较大,这与实际相符合,因此小尺度的自相关分析更符合实际,且小尺度两极分化严重。县域尺度冷、热点地区具有典型的核心-边缘结构、南北空间分异显著,涓滴效应逐渐显现,南北差异有所减小。最后提出在"两带一路"背景下针对不同尺度人口城乡结构合理发展的建议。

关键词: 人口城乡结构差异, 马尔可夫链, 空间自相关, 多尺度, 江苏省

Abstract: Urban and rural population structure refers to the ratios of urban and rural population to the total population. Changes in the proportion of urban and rural population are not only the results of social and economic changes, but also important factors affecting socio-economic development. Urban and rural population structure is mainly measured by the level of urbanization. Studying urbanization disparities helps to fully understand the disparities of development extent as well as socio-economic contacts within and across the regions, so that it can provide decision bases for the various regions with "local conditions" development. Therefore, the level of urbanization differences has attracted more and more attentions in China. Using the fourth, fifth and sixth national census data, the "multi-scale" analysis framework, the overall difference measure index (including standard deviation, Theil index and its decomposition), Markov chain, ESDA correlation analysis and so on, we analyzed the temporal and spatial dynamics of population structure differences between urban and rural on different scales in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2010. The results showed:(1) In the 20 years, both absolute differences and relative differences of urban and rural population structure in Jiangsu Province showed a narrowing trend at different scales, which was sharp in the first 10 years, and then showed slowing down in the later 10 years. Relative differences and the degree of narrowing decreased from county to city and region. The main influencing factors are the differences of regional basic development, driving forces and scopes of growth poles, the focuses of government policies and population migration mechanisms and other factors. Narrowing of the differences between the three regions is the biggest contribution to narrowing of all the province's difference, mainly due to the linkage effect between the three major regions through population flow, transportation, industry, resources and so on. (2) The transition probabilities of population structure types between urban and rural areas were large and fluctuant in the first 10 years, while they tend to be stable in the later 10 years. The process of regional convergence in urban of Southern Jiangsu has been globally characterized by "convergence club" since 1990, and this trend was sharpened and presences at high levels. (3) On the regional scale, polarization between South Jiangsu and North Jiangsu has eased, but from the point of view of the county scale, the gaps between most counties in the North Jiangsu and South Jiangsu are still large, which showed that small scale polarization was serious. Therefore, autocorrelation analysis of small-scale conforms to the reality. From the point of view of the county scale, hot spots and cold spots show the typical core-periphery structure and the significant North-South spatial disparities. Trickle-down effect is gradually revealed, North-South differences are narrowing. Finally, in the background of "Two Belts and One Road", some suggestions can be put forward.

Key words: urban and rural population structure disparities, Markov chain, spatial autocorrelation, multi-scale, Jiangsu Province

中图分类号:

K901.3

吴连霞, 赵媛, 管卫华. 江苏省人口城乡结构差异的多尺度研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2016, 25(01): 25-38.

WU Lian-xia, ZHAO Yuan, GUAN Wei-hua. MULTI SCALE STUDY ON THE DIFFERENCES OF POPULATION AND RURAL STRUCTURE IN JIANGSU PROVINCE[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2016, 25(01): 25-38.

参考文献

[1] 刘长茂, 张元纯. 人口结构学[M]. 北京:中国人口出版社, 1991:326.
[2] 乌敦, 李百岁. 内蒙古城市化水平地域差异分析[J]. 经济地理, 2009, 29(2):249-254.[WU D, LI B S. Analysis on the regional differences of Inner Mongolia urbanization level[J]. Economic Geography, 2009, 29(2):249-254.]
[3] 朱传耿, 孙姗姗, 李志江. 中国人口城市化的影响要素与空间格局[J]. 地理研究, 2008, 27(1):13-23.[ZHU C G, SUN S S, LI Z J. The influencing factors and spatial distribution of population urbanization in China[J]. Geographical Research, 2008, 27(1):13-23.]
[4] 马晓冬, 马荣华, 徐建刚. 基于 ESDA-GIS 的城镇群体空间结构[J]. 地理学报, 2004, 59(6):1048-1057.[MA X D, MA R H, XU J G. Spatial structure of cities and towns with ESDA-GIS framework[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2004, 59(6):1048-1057.]
[5] 马晓冬, 马荣华, 蒲英霞. 苏州地区城市化空间格局及演化分析[J]. 城市问题, 2007(9):20-24.[MA X D, MA R H, PU Y X. The spatial pattern and evolvement of Suzhou urbanization[J]. Urban Problems, 2007(9):20-24.]
[6] 马晓冬, 沈正平. 江苏省城市化的空间格局及其演化[J]. 经济地理, 2007, 27(5):783-795.[MA X D, SHEN Z P. Study on the spatial pattern and evolution of urbanization in Jiangsu Province[J]. Economic Geography, 2007, 27(5):783-786, 795.]
[7] 韦善豪, 覃照素. 广西沿海地区城镇空间格局及演化规律[J]. 经济地理, 2006, 26(S1):256-261.[WEI S H, QIN Z S. On the downtown spatial configurations of Guangxi coastal areas and its evolutionary rules[J]. Economic Geography, 2006, 26(S1):256-261.]
[8] 尚正永, 张小林, 卢晓旭, 等. 安徽省区域城市化格局时空演变研究[J]. 经济地理, 2011, 31(4):584-590.[SHANG Z Y, ZHANG X L, LU X X, et al. Spatial and temporal evolution of regional urbanization pattern in Anhui Province[J]. Economic Geography, 2011, 31(4):584-590.]
[9] 钟业喜, 陆玉麒, 雷延军. 江苏省城市化空间格局研究[J]. 经济地理, 2010, 30(10):1637-1641.[ZHONG Y X, LU Y Q, LEI Y J. Spatial pattern of urbanization in Jiangsu Province[J]. Economic Geography, 2010, 30(10):1637-1641.]
[10] 秦佳, 李建民. 中国人口城镇化的空间差异与影响因素[J]. 人口研究, 2013, 37(2):25-40.[QIN J, LI J M. Spatial patterns and determinants of urbanization in China[J]. Population Research, 2013, 37(2):25-40.]
[11] 贺振. 基于空间自相关的河南省城镇化水平空间格局研究[J]. 测绘科学, 2010, 35(6):178-179.[HE Z. Spatial pattern of urbanization level based on spatial autocorrelation in Henan Province[J]. Science of Surveying and Mapping, 2010, 35(6):178-179.]
[12] 辜胜阻, 李华, 易善策. 均衡城镇化:大都市与中小城市协调共进[J]. 人口研究, 2010, 34(5):3-11.[GU S Z, LI H, YI S C. Balancing urbanization by coordinated development between megacities and medium and small cities[J]. Population Research, 2010, 34(5):3-11.]
[13] 蒋伟. 中国省域城市化水平影响因素的空间计量分析[J]. 经济地理, 2009, 29(4):613-617.[JIANG W. The spatial econometrical analysis to influencing factors of Chinese regional urbanization level[J]. Economic Geography, 2009, 29(4):613-617.]
[14] 刘盛和, 蒋芳, 张擎. 我国城市化发展的区域差异及协调发展对策[J]. 人口研究, 2007, 31(3):7-10.[LIU S H, JIANG F, ZHANG Q. Urbanization in China:regional diversity and policies for coordinated development[J]. Population Research, 2007, 31(3):7-10.]
[15] 刘彦随, 杨忍. 中国县域城镇化的空间特征与形成机理[J]. 地理学报, 2012, 67(8):1011-1020.[LIU Y S, YANG R. The spatial characteristics and formation mechanism of the county urbanization in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(8):1011-1020.]
[16] 王桂新, 魏星, 刘建波, 张伊娜. 中国长江三角洲地区城市化与城市群发展特征研究[J]. 中国人口科学, 2005(2):42-50.[WANG G X, WEI X, LIU J B, et al. Features of urbanization and urban agglomeration in Yangtze River delta[J]. Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2005(2):42-50.]
[17] BRUCKNER M. Economica Growth, Size of the Agricultural Sector, and Urbanization in Africa[J]. Journal of Urban Eonomics, 2012, 71:26-36.
[18] 程叶青. 东北地区粮食单产空间格局变化及其动因分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2009, 24(9):1541-1549.[CHENG Y Q. Spatial pattern change and its driving factors of grain per unit area yield in northeast China[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2009, 24(9):1541-1549.]
[19] AKITA T. Decomposing Regional Income Inequality in China and Indonesia Using Two-Stage Nested Theil Decomposition Method[J]. Annals of Regional Science, 2003, 37(1):55-77.
[20] TERRASI M. Convergence and Divergence across Italian Regions[J]. Annals of Regional Science[J], 1999, 33(4):491-510.
[21] 王青, 叶衣广. 我国区域城镇化发展差异及其分解. 城市问题, 2008(4):15-18, 39.[WANG Q, YE Y G. The development difference and its decomposition of the regional urbanization in China[J]. Urban Problems, 2008(4):15-18, 39.]
[22] SCHWARZE J. How Income Inequality Changed in Germany Following Reunification:An Empirical Analysis Using Decomposable Inequality Measures[J]. Review of Income and Wealth, 1996, 42(1):1-11.
[23] ANSELIN L. Interactive techniques and exploratory spatial data analysis[M]//LONGLEY P A, GOODCHILD M F, MAGUIRE D J, et al. Geographical Information Systems, Principles, Technical Issues, Management Issues and Applications. New York:John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1999:253-266.
[24] 靳诚, 陆玉麒. 基于县域单元的江苏省经济空间格局演化[J]. 地理学报, 2009, 64(6):713-724.[JIN C, LU Y Q. Evolvement of spatial pattern of economy in Jiangsu Province at county level[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009, 64(6):713-724.]
[25] 蒲英霞, 葛莹, 马荣华, 等. 基于ESDA的区域经济空间差异分析——以江苏省为例[J]. 地理研究, 2005, 24(6):965-974.[PU Y X, GE Y, MA R H, et al. Analyzing regional economic disparities based on ESDA[J]. Geographical Research, 2005, 24(6):965-974.]
[26] 盛骤, 谢式千, 潘承毅. 概率论与数理统计[M]. 第二版. 北京:高等教育出版社, 1989.
[27] 徐建华. 现代地理学中的数学方法[M]. 第二版. 北京:高等教育出版社, 2002:93-95.[XU J H. Mathematical Methods in Contemporary Geography[M]. 2nd ed. Beijing:Higher Education Press, 2002:93-95.]
[28] 刘耀林, 刘艳芳, 张玉梅. 基于灰色-马尔柯夫链预测模型的耕地需求量预测研究[J]. 武汉大学学报·信息科学版, 2004, 29(7):575-579.[LIU Y L, LIU Y F, ZHANG Y M. Prediction of gross arable land based on grey-Markov model[J]. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University, 2004, 29(7):575-579.]
[29] 宁龙梅, 王学雷, 胡望斌. 利用马尔科夫过程模拟和预测武汉市湿地景观的动态演变[J]. 华中师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2004, 38(2):255-258.[NING L M, WANG X L, HU W B. Simulation and forecast of wetland landscapes development with Markov process in Wuhan city[J]. Journal of Central China Normal University (Natural Sciences), 2004, 38(2):255-258.]
[30] 王水献, 董新光, 寇文. 马尔柯夫过程预测焉耆盆地土地利用/覆被格局变化[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2007, 21(10):28-33.[WANG S X, DONG X G, KOU W. Prediction of land use and land cover patterns using Markov chain model in Yanqi basin, Xinjiang[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2007, 21(10):28-33.]
[31] 刘家福, 王平, 李京, 等. 基于Markov模型的长岭县土地利用时空变化研究[J]. 水土保持研究, 2009, 16(3):16-19.[LIU J F, WANG P, LI J, et al. Spatial-temporal changes of land use based on Markov model in Changling County[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2009, 16(3):16-19.]
[32] 李秀珍, 布仁仓, 常禹, 等. 景观格局指标对不同景观格局的反应[J]. 生态学报, 2004, 24(1):123-134.[LI X Z, BU R C, CHANG Y, et al. The response of landscape metrics against pattern scenarios[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2004, 24(1):123-134.]
[33] 吴琼, 王如松, 李宏卿, 等. 土地利用/景观生态学研究中的马尔可夫链统计性质分析[J]. 应用生态学报, 2006, 17(3):434-437.[WU Q, WANG R S, LI H Q, et al. Statistical properties of Markov chain in land use and landscape study[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2006, 17(3):434-437.]
[34] GUAN D J, GAO W J, WATARI K, et al. Land use change of Kitakyushu based on landscape ecology and Markov model[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2008, 18(4):455-468.
[35] 陆汝成, 黄贤金, 左天惠, 等. 基于CLUE-S和Markov复合模型的土地利用情景模拟研究——以江苏省环太湖地区[J]. 地理科学, 2009, 29(4):577-581.[LU R C, HUANG X J, ZUO T H, et al. Land use scenarios simulation based on CLUE-S and Markov composite model——a case study of Taihu lake rim in Jiangsu Province[J]. Cientia Geographica Sinica, 2009, 29(4):577-581.]
[36] 胡雪丽, 徐凌. 张树深. 基于CA-Markov模型和多目标优化的大连市土地利用模型格局[J]. 应用生态学报, 2013, 24(6):1652-1659.[HU X L, XU L, ZHANG S S. Land use pattern of Dalian City, Liaoning Province of Northeast China based on CA-Markov model and multi-objective optimization[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2013, 24(6):1652-1659.]
[37] 井梅秀, 李晶. 基于CA-Markov模型的关中-天水经济区土地利用变化动态模拟[J]. 陕西师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2013, 41(1):99-103.[JING M X, LI J. The dynamic simulation of the land use change in Guanzhong-Tianshui economic zone based on CA-Markov model[J]. Journal of Shaanxi Normal University (Natural Science Edition), 2013, 41(1):99-103.]
[38] 何丹, 金凤君, 周璟. 基于Logistic-CA-Markov的土地利用景观格局变化——以京津冀都市圈为例[J]. 地理科学, 2011, 31(8):903-910.[HE D, JIN F J, ZHOU J. The Changes of land use and landscape pattern based on Logistic-CA-Markov model-a case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan region[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2011, 31(8):903-910.]
[39] 蒲英霞, 马荣华, 葛莹, 等. 基于空间马尔可夫链的江苏区域趋同时空演变[J]. 地理学报, 2005, 60(5):817-826.[PU Y X, MA R H, GE Y, et al. Spatial-temporal dynamics of Jiangsu regional convergence with spatial Markov chains approach[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2005, 60(5):817-826.]
[40] 覃成林, 唐永. 河南区域经济增长俱乐部趋同研究[J]. 地理研究, 2007, 26(3):548-556.[QIN C L, TANG Y. Club convergence of regional economic growth in Henan Province[J]. Geographical Research, 2007, 26(3):548-556.]
[41] 罗迎新. 梅州市县域经济发展水平空间差异与开发[J]. 经济地理, 2006, 26(1):32-36.[LUO Y X. Spatial difference of economical development level among county regions and development in Meizhou[J]. Economic Geography, 2006, 26(1):32-36.]
[42] 叶信岳, 李晶晶, 程叶青. 浙江省经济差异时空动态的多尺度与多机制分析[J]. 地理科学进展, 2014, 33(9):1177-1186.[YE X Y, LI J J, CHENG Y Q. Multi-scale and multi-mechanism analysis of the spatial pattern and temporal change of regional economic development disparities in Zhejiang Province[J]. Progress in Geography, 2014, 33(9):1177-1186.]

Metrics

Viewed

Full text

Abstract

Cited

Shared

Discussed