长江流域资源与环境 >> 2017, Vol. 26 >> Issue (10): 1523-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201710022

• 生态环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

近45 a来我国农业气象灾害变化特征 及其对粮食产量的影响

于小兵1,2,卢逸群2,吉中会2,骆翔2,蔡玫2   

  1. 1. 南京信息工程大学科学技术史研究院,江苏 南京210044;
    2. 南京信息工程大学经济管理学院,江苏 南京210044)
  • 出版日期:2017-10-20

CHANGE TREND OF AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGICAL DISASTERS #br# AND THE RELATIONSHIP WITH GRAIN YIELD IN RECENT 45 YEARS

YU Xiaobing1,2, LU Yiqun2,JI Zhonghui2, LUO Xiang2,CAI Mei2   

  1. (1. Research Institute for History of Science and Technology, Nanjing University of
    Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;2. School of Economics and Management,
    Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)
  • Online:2017-10-20

摘要:  利用农业部种植业管理司发布的数据,针对近45 a(1970~2014年)来我国农业气象灾害变化特征及其对粮食产量影响的问题,采用数理统计和偏相关分析方法进行了研究。结果表明:黑龙江、 山东和河南是受灾和成灾面积最大的省份;山西和内蒙古是受灾率和成灾率最高的两个省份;旱灾是我国主要的气象灾害,洪涝灾害波动明显,沿海地区台风灾害持续上升;东北地区旱灾比重增加,低 温灾害有所减轻;华东地区洪涝、低温和台风灾害比重增加;华北地区低温和风雹呈现上升趋势;华南地区台风灾害增长显著;西北地区风雹和低温增加;西南地区旱灾和洪涝走势相反;中南地区旱灾 减轻,洪涝加重;气象灾害直接影响到粮食总产量,干旱和洪涝灾害影响尤为明显;气象灾害与粮食产量的关系呈现出先上升后下降趋势。
关键词: 气象灾害;偏相关;粮食产量;受灾面积;成灾面积

Abstract: China is one of the most serious countries suffering meteorological disasters in the world. Based on datasets from the Management Division of Ministry of Agriculture,  we analyzed the agricultural meteorological disasters of China in the past 45 years. The results show that the largest covered and affected areas were mainly concentrated in  Heilongjiang province, Shandong province and Henan province; Shan Xi province and Inner Mongolia province experienced the highest hazard rates. Among other disasters, drought is  the main meteorological disaster in China. There is an obvious fluctuation for the flood disaster. The typhoon disaster continues to rise in coastal areas. The percentage of  drought disaster has increased and low temperature has been reduced in Northeast of China. The percentage of low temperature and hail disaster has risen in East of China. There has been an upward trend of typhoon disaster in South of China. The percentage of hail and low temperature disasters show a smaller growth in the Northwest of China. The trend  of drought and flood disasters are opposite in the Southwest of China. Drought disaster has eased and flood has increased in the central of China. The relation between  meteorological disasters and food production were examined using the partial correlation method. The meteorological disasters directly influenced the grain yield especially  during 1990-2009. The relationship between meteorological disasters and food production showed firstly an increasing trend then followed by a decreasing trend.
Key words:meteorological disasters; food production; disaster affected area; partial correlation

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