长江流域资源与环境 >> 2019, Vol. 28 >> Issue (05): 1080-1091.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201905008

• 自然资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国水资源承载力评价及变化研究

刘雁慧1,2,李阳兵1,2*,梁鑫源1,2,冉彩虹1,2   

  1. (1.重庆师范大学地理与旅游学院,重庆 401331;2.三峡库区地表过程与环境遥感重点实验室,重庆 401331)
  • 出版日期:2019-05-20 发布日期:2019-05-22

Study on Water Resource Carrying Capacity Evaluation and Change in China

LIU Yan-hui1,2,LI Yang-bing1,2,LIANG Xin-yuan1,2,RAN Cai-hong1,2   

  1. (1.School of Geography and Tourism, Chongqing Normal University,Chongqing 401331,China;2.Key Laboratory of Surface Process and Environmental Remote Sensing in Three Gorges Reservoir Area,Chongqing 401331,China)
  • Online:2019-05-20 Published:2019-05-22

摘要: 为探讨中国水资源承载力的现状与未来变化趋势,综合考虑社会、经济、自然等因素,从承压、压力、协调、管理4个方面构建指标体系,通过基于熵权法的综合评价方法探讨2000~2015年中国水资源承载力,使用M-K趋势法分析其时空变化特征,并通过R/S分析法预测其未来趋势。结果表明:空间分布上,中国水资源承载力整体较差,其中北纬35°~40°之间水资源承载力普遍较差,南北两侧地区较好。时空变化上,中国水资源承载力整体呈恶化状态,其中东北及西南大部分地区呈恶化状态,东南大部分地区呈改善状态,西北地区变化不显著。未来趋势上,水资源承载力在全国大部分地区将呈现持续恶化趋势,持续恶化区域主要集中于内蒙古高原、青藏高原、云贵高原、华北平原、长江中下游平原及东南沿海地区;青海和湖南可能有恶化趋势;其他地区将呈现改善或可能改善趋势。研究结果对未来水资源承载力调控具有一定指导意义:东南沿海地区承载潜力较大,山西、山东、北京等地几乎枯竭,东北及青藏高原地区水资源优势在逐渐丧失,应针对不同地区水资源承载潜力特点采取相应的措施;协调系统、管理系统以及承压系统中的生态环境、压力系统中的污染物排放可控性较大,对水资源承载力的调控可从这些方面入手。

Abstract: In order to discuss the present situation and future trend of water resource carrying capacity in China,In this paper, the index system was constructed from the four aspects of pressure, pressure, coordination and management. The water resource carrying capacity of China from 2000 to 2015 was discussed through the comprehensive evaluation method based on entropy weight method. The characteristics of space time change were analyzed using m-k trend method, and the future trend was predicted by R/S analysis method.The results showed that: China’s deteriorating condition on the whole, the water resources carrying capacity in the north latitude 35°-40° are quite common, north and south on both sides of the area is better. The deterioration of water resources carrying capacity mainly occurred in northeast and southwest regions, while the improvement mainly occurred in southeast and northwest regions without significant changes. In the future, WRCC will continue to deteriorate in most areas of the country, mainly in the Inner Mongolia plateau, qinghai tibet plateau, yunnan guizhou plateau, north China plain, middle and lower Yangtze river plain and southeast coastal areas. Qinghai and hunan are likely to deteriorate; Other areas will show an improvement or likely improvement trend. The bearing potential of the southeast coastal area is large, the places of shanxi, shandong and Beijing are almost exhausted, and the advantages of the northeast and qinghai tibet plateau are gradually lost, so corresponding measures should be taken according to the bearing potential of water resources in different regions. Coordination system, management system, ecological environment in pressure system and pollutant discharge in pressure system are more controllable. The regulation of water resource carrying capacity can start from these aspects.

No related articles found!
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed   
[1] 刘腊美 龙天渝 李崇明. 三峡水库上游流域非点源颗粒态磷污染负荷研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2009, 18(4): 320 .
[2] 周国英, 李天才, 徐文华, 孙菁, 马海, 陈桂琛. 多年冻土区工程迹地人工恢复区植物和土壤的矿质元素含量特征[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2011, 20(2): 191 .
[3] 唐建华, 徐建益, 赵升伟, 刘玮祎. 基于实测资料的长江河口南支河段盐水入侵规律分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2011, 20(06): 677 .
[4] 许乃银 | 张国伟 | 李 健 | 周治国. 基于GGE双标图和纤维长度选择的长江流域棉花区域试验环境评价[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2013, 22(06): 735 .
[5] 刘耀彬|戴 璐|张桂波. 水环境胁迫下的环鄱阳湖区城市化格局响应[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2014, 23(01): 81 .
[6] 张家其, 王佳, 吴宜进,葛咏, 王程昊. 恩施地区生态足迹和生态承载力评价[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2014, 23(05): 603 .
[7] 李志威, 王兆印, 贾艳红, 李文哲. 三峡水库蓄水前后长江中下游江心洲的演变及其机理分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2015, 24(01): 65 .
[8] 胡振鹏, 葛刚, 刘成林. 鄱阳湖湿地植被退化原因分析及其预警[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2015, 24(03): 381 .
[9] 沈惊宏1,4, 余兆旺2, 沈宏婷3, 陆玉麒4. 基于修正场模型的区域空间结构演变及空间整合〖HT2”SS〗——以泛长江三角洲为例[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2015, 24(04): 557 .
[10] 陈心池, 张利平, 闪丽洁, 杨卫, 徐霞. 基于Copula函数的汉江中上游流域极端降雨洪水联合分布特征[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2015, 24(08): 1425 -1433 .