长江流域资源与环境 >> 2019, Vol. 28 >> Issue (05): 1092-1101.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201905009

• 自然资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于洪旱灾害的雅鲁藏布江流域水资源脆弱性时空差异分析

胡博亭1,2, 柳江1,2, 王文玲1,2, 冯 彦1,2*   

  1. (1.云南大学国际河流与生态安全研究院/亚洲国际河流中心,云南 昆明 650091;2.云南省国际河流与生态安全重点实验室,云南 昆明 650091)
  • 出版日期:2019-05-20 发布日期:2019-05-22

Temporal Spatial Differences of Water Resources Vulnerability in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin Based on the Characteristics of Flood and Drought Disasters

HU Bo-ting1,2,  LIU Jiang1,2,  WANG Wen-ling1,2,  FENG Yan1,2   

  1. (1.Institute of International Rivers and Eco-security /Asian International Rivers Center, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China;2. Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Ecosecurity, Kunming 650091, China)
  • Online:2019-05-20 Published:2019-05-22

摘要: 水资源脆弱性分析是确立区域水资源问题和调控水安全的重要环节。雅鲁藏布江流域水资源丰富,但时空分布不均,洪旱灾害频发、经济欠发达,导致水资源脆弱性明显。基于1965~2014年的气象月尺度数据,分析流域降水分布特征、确定其干湿分区;采用标准化降水指数认识流域洪旱灾害时空分布状况,并从洪旱灾害及沙漠化、供用水及用水效益、调控能力3个方面构建流域水资源脆弱性指标评价体系,运用熵权法分析时空差异特征。结果表明:(1)流域多年平均降水量458 mm,空间上从西北向东南方向递增,上游日喀则市大部、中游拉萨市和山南地区属于中等干旱区,下游林芝市为湿润区;(2)流域内4区/市均易发生春旱和盛夏洪涝,干旱灾害发生率高于洪涝灾害发生率,拉萨市和林芝市易发生干旱重灾,山南地区易发生洪涝重灾;(3)流域及4区/市在2005~2014年间水资源脆弱性均呈下降趋势,山南地区、林芝市的降幅大于日喀则市、拉萨市;(4)流域水资源脆弱性的主导因子为干旱、洪涝、用水效益、管理能力、地区生产总值。流域水资源脆弱性特征为由洪旱灾害主导、调控能力弱、水资源利用效率低。

Abstract: It is important to study water resources vulnerability in order to identify water resource problems and regulate water security. Water resources of the Yarlung Zangbo River basin are abundant, but its distribution is uneven, frequently flood and drought disasters and lower social economic development trigger spatial temporal differences of water resources vulnerability. Based on the monthly meteorological data from 1965 to 2014, the precipitation distribution and the dry-wet partition are analyzed. We analyzed the temporal spatial distribution of flood and drought disasters with the standardized precipitation index, and subsequently applied the entropy method to examine the temporalspatial differences of water resources vulnerability, based on the following three parameters of ‘flood and drought disasters and desertification’, ‘water supply and benefit’, and ‘regulatory capacity’. The results indicate that: 1) annual average precipitation is 458 mm in the basin and increases from northwest to southeast. Most of Rikaze in the upstream region, as well as Lasa and Shannan in midstream region are located in the semiarid climate zone, while Linzhi in the downstream belongs to the humid climate zone; 2) Spring droughts and midsummer floods usually occur within the basin, and the frequency of floods is lower than that of droughts. Lasa and Linzhi are more prone to experience severe droughts, while Shannan is more vulnerable to floods; 3) Water resources vulnerability in the basin and the four cities/prefectures shows a downward trend from 2005 to 2014, but the reduction in vulnerability is faster in Shannan and Linzhi than in Lasa and Rikaze; 4) The dominant factors influencing water resources vulnerability are floods, droughts, water use efficiency, management capacity, and GDP. In short, water resource vulnerability in this basin is dominated by floods and droughts, weak regulatory capacity and inefficient use of water.

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