长江流域资源与环境 >> 2020, Vol. 29 >> Issue (2): 322-333.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202002005

• 区域可持续发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于BRT模型的南昌市城市扩展时空特征及驱动因素研究

陈  蕾1,2,郭  熙1,2* ,韩  逸1,2,朱  青1,2   

  1. (1.江西农业大学国土资源与环境学院,江西 南昌 330045;2.江西省鄱阳湖流域农业资源与生态重点实验室,江西 南昌 330045)
  • 出版日期:2020-02-20 发布日期:2020-02-20

Research on Spatio-temporal Characteristics and Driving Factors of Urban Expansion in Nanchang City Based on BRT Model

CHEN Lei1,2 , GUO Xi1,2,HAN Yi1,2, ZHU Qing1,2   

  1. (1 College of Land Resource and Environment, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China;2 Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Watershed Agricultural Resources and Ecology of Jiangxi Province, Nanchang 330045, China)
  • Online:2020-02-20 Published:2020-02-20

摘要: 分析城市扩展的时空特征以及其驱动因素,有助了解城镇化规律,为制定具有区域化特色的城市空间规划提供方案。研究以南昌市为例,基于多期Landsat遥感影像(2000、2008、2017年)获取南昌市城镇用地变化的时空信息,采用扩展强度指数、景观扩展指数、重心指数等方法分析了该地区城市扩展的时空特征,进而应用增强回归树模型(Boosted Regression Tree,BRT )探究影响城市扩展的驱动因素。结果表明:(1)2000~2017年,南昌市城镇用地面积增加了252.81 km2,第一阶段(2000~2008年)增长的强度和速度大于第二阶段(2008~2017年);(2)两阶段南昌市城镇用地扩展模式均以边缘式扩展为主,以填充式及飞地式为辅,扩展方式缺乏集约性,存在“摊大饼”式问题;(3)从整个研究期来看,南昌城市发展重心总体上往西南方迁移了2.19 km,第一阶段南昌市城市扩展重心向西迁移了1.50 km,第二阶段又继续向西南方迁移了1.35 km;(4)南昌市城市扩展的16个方向中,以SW及SWW方向上较大,而在NW、N、NNE、SE、SSE方向上因受到梅岭山脉以及军山湖泊的阻隔导致扩展强度较小;(5)利用BRT分析邻域因素(距2000年城区距离,距河流距离,距路网距离),社会因素(土地利用类型,GDP,城镇人口),自然因素(高程,坡度,海拔)可知,南昌市城市扩展主要受邻域因素的影响,社会因素中仅土地利用类型对城市扩展影响较大,而自然因素的影响相对较小。

Abstract: The space-time characteristics of urban expansion and its driving factors help understand the laws of urbanization and provide a scheme for the formulation of urban spatial planning with regional characteristics. This study was a case of Nanchang City, where Multi-source data from Landsat (in 2000, 2008 and 2017) were used to obtain the space-time information of urban expansion and were analyzed using the expansion intensity index, landscape expansion index and center of gravity index. The influencing factors were then analyzed using the boosted regression tree model (BRT). The results show that:(1) From 2000-2017, the urban expansion area in Nanchang increased by 252.81 km2. The intensity and speed of growth was comparatively greater during the first phase (2000-2008) than the second phase(2008-2017). (2) In both the phases, the urban expansion pattern was dominated by edge expansion, some of them supplemented by infilling and outlying expansion, which was random and less intensive. (3) In the period of 2000-2017, the center of the city moved 2.19 km to the southwest. The shift in the first phase was 1.5 km west and 1.35 km southwest in the second phase. (4) Among the 16 directions, SW and SWW had comparatively larger urban expansion with NW, N, NNE, SE, and SSE directions expanding much smaller due to the natural barriers of the Meiling Mountains and the Junshan lakes. (5) BRT analysis of the neighborhood factors (distance from the city in 2000, rivers and road network), social factors (land use type, GDP and urban population) and natural factors (elevation, slope and aspect) showed that the urban expansion of Nanchang City has been mainly affected by the neighborhood factors. And among the social factors, only land-use types have a greater impact on urban expansion, while the influence of natural factors is relatively weak.
Key words:urban expansion; boosted regression tree; driving factor; Nanchang city

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