长江流域资源与环境 >> 2021, Vol. 30 >> Issue (5): 1076-1087.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202105005

• 自然资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于BP神经网络的淮河流域水生态足迹分析与预测

安  慧,范历娟,吴海林,杨雯晶   

  1. (三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北 宜昌 443002)
  • 出版日期:2021-05-20 发布日期:2021-06-15

Analysis and Prediction of Water Ecological Footprint of Huaihe River Basin Based on BP Neural Network

AN Hui,FAN Li-juan,WU Hai-lin,YANG Wen-jing   

  1. (College of Hydraulic & Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China)
  • Online:2021-05-20 Published:2021-06-15

摘要: 运用水生态足迹理论和计算方法,测算出淮河流域水资源生态足迹和生态承载力,并在此基础上引入5个相关指标对淮河流域及其所属5省份的水资源时空变化进行系统分析,同时,采用具有自学习能力的BP神经网络预测出淮河流域2017~2025年的水资源生态足迹、承载力。研究表明:(1)淮河流域水资源生态足迹及承载力呈现总体上升的趋势,水资源生态赤字和生态压力均过大,水资源安全受到巨大威胁。(2)5个省份水资源均处于赤字状态,生态压力指数均大于1,水资源开发利用处于不可持续状态,其中,江苏省负载指数大,水资源开发潜力小,其他4省相对而言易于开发。(3)预测结果表明水资源生态压力较大,水资源大部分时间处于过度开发利用状态,水资源供给量小于流域内部经济发展的需求量,个别年份需要外部水量补充,万元GDP水资源利用率较低,水资源安全处于临界状态。

Abstract: Using the ecological footprint theory and calculation methods, the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of the water resources in the Huaihe River Basin were measured, and five indicators including the ecological footprint of the ecological footprint were introduced. The spatial and temporal changes of water resources in five provinces including Shandong and Hubei were systematically analyzed. The BP neural network with the ability to transform and self-learn can accurately predict the ecological footprint and carrying capacity of water resources in the Huaihe River Basin in 2017-2025. Studies show that: (1) The ecological footprint and bearing capacity of water resources in the Huaihe River Basin are generally on the rise, the ecological deficits and pressures on water resources are too large, and water resources security is threatened. (2) The water resources of all five provinces are in deficit, the ecological pressure index is greater than 1, and the development and utilization of water resources is unsustainable. Among them, Jiangsu has a large load index and small potential for water resources development, and the other four provinces are relatively easy. Development. (3) The forecast results indicate that the ecological pressure of water resources is relatively large, and water resources are in an overexploitation and utilization state most of the time. The supply of water resources is less than the demand for economic development within the basin. In some years, external water needs to be supplemented. The rate is low, and water resources security is in a critical state.

No related articles found!
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed   
[1] 王玉蓉,李嘉| 李克锋,芮建良. 雅砻江锦屏二级水电站减水河段生态需水量研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2007, 16(1): 81 -85 .
[2] 林 康. 长江三角洲人口集聚与布局探讨[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2006, 15(5): 654 -658 .
[3] 仲阳康,周 慧,施文彧,周 晓,周立晨,王天厚. 上海滩涂春季鸻形目鸟类群落及围垦后生境选择[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2006, 15(3): 378 -383 .
[4] 黄国安,熊心康. 三峡工程拉动湖北经济发展分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2004, 13(2): 114 -118 .
[5] 武周虎,张娜. 河滩人工湿地对河流洪水位影响的数值模拟[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2007, 16(1): 7 -10 .
[6] 毕东苏, 郑广宏, 顾国维, 郭小品. 城市生态系统承载理论探索与实证——以长江三角洲为例[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2005, 14(4): 465 -469 .
[7] 李翀,廖文根,彭静,叶柏生. 宜昌站1900~2004年生态水文特征变化[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2007, 16(1): 76 -80 .
[8] 刘 伟. 长江经济带区域经济差异分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2006, 15(2): 131 -135 .
[9] 王云琦,王玉杰,朱金兆. 重庆缙云山典型林分林地土壤抗蚀性分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2005, 14(6): 775 -780 .
[10] 屈 璠,刘 敏,侯立军,许世远,刘巧梅,欧冬妮. 潮汐循环影响下上覆水环境因子和氮营养盐的变化及其相关关系[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2007, 16(3): 345 .