长江流域资源与环境 >> 2021, Vol. 30 >> Issue (5): 1275-1283.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202105024

• 自然灾害 • 上一篇    

基于Copula函数的川江干支流洪水遭遇分析

李继清,谢宇韬,侯宇   

  1. (华北电力大学水利与水电工程学院,北京 102206)
  • 出版日期:2021-05-20 发布日期:2021-06-15

Analysis of Floods Encounter of the Main Stream and Tributaries of Chuanjiang River Based on Copula Function

LI Ji-qing,XIE Yu-tao,HOU Yu   

  1. (School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206,China)
  • Online:2021-05-20 Published:2021-06-15

摘要: 干支流洪水遭遇加剧了江河的防洪形势,分析干支流洪水的遭遇情况,对于充分利用流域梯级水库的防洪库容,减少下游洪灾损失具有重要意义。目前的洪水遭遇分析大多采用实测资料统计,Copula函数因其灵活有效性被陆续应用到其中。为合理制定川江联合防洪调度方式,减轻川江河段防洪压力,采用川江干流朱沱站、寸滩站和嘉陵江北碚站、乌江武隆站多年实测资料,通过混合Von Mises分布和P-Ⅲ型分布拟合年最大洪水发生时间和洪水量级,引入Archimedean Copula函数分别构建干流与支流、支流与支流间的联合分布,对川江干支流洪水遭遇的可能性进行了分析。研究表明:川江干支流千年一遇洪水发生遭遇的概率较低,川江干流与嘉陵江洪水发生遭遇的概率较高且量级较大,乌江与川江干流、嘉陵江发生遭遇的概率较低且量级较小。

Abstract: The encounter of main stream and tributary floods has made the river's flood control situation more severe. It is of great significance to analyze the encounter situation of main and tributary floods in order to make full use of the flood control capacity of the cascade reservoirs in the river basin and reduce the flood loss in the downstream. At present, most of the flood encounter analysis is based on the measured data, and copula function has been applied to it because of its flexibility and effectiveness. The purpose of this study is to rationally formulate joint flood control dispatching methods in the various river basins of the Yangtze River and reduce the pressure of flood control in the Chuanjiang River In this paper, we used the multi-year actual measured data of Zhutuo Station, Cuntan Station on the main stream of Chuangjiang River, Beibei Station on the Jialing River and Wulong Station on the Wujiang River. Through Von Mises mixture distribution and P-Ⅲ distribution, this article aims to fit the annual maximum flood occurrence time and flood magnitude. In addition, this paper introduces Archimedean copula function to build joint distribution between main stream and tributary and between tributaries to analyze the possibility of flood encounter in the main and tributaries of the Yangtze River. The results show that: the probability of occurrence of once-in-a-thousand floods encounter in the main stream and tributaries of the Chuanjiang River is low, the probability of the occurrence of the floods encounter between the main stream of the Chuanjiang River and the Jialing River is relatively high and the magnitude is large, while the probability of the occurrence of the encounter between the Wujiang River, the main stream of the Chuanjiang River and the Jialing River is relatively low and the magnitude is small.

No related articles found!
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed   
[1] 徐长义,钟登华,曹广晶. 我国水电可持续发展的理性思考[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2008, 17(4): 535 .
[2] 段学军, 陈 雯. 省域空间开发功能区划方法探讨[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2005, 14(5): 540 -545 .
[3] 张维昊,宋立荣,徐小清,刘永定,张锡辉. 天然水体中微囊藻毒素归宿的初步研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2004, 13(1): 84 -88 .
[4] 李翀,廖文根,彭静,叶柏生. 宜昌站1900~2004年生态水文特征变化[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2007, 16(1): 76 -80 .
[5] 杜昌文,周健民,王火焰. 聚合物包膜肥料研究进展[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2005, 14(6): 725 -730 .
[6] 蒋天文,樊志宏. 大江大河从“公共资源”到“公地悲剧”演变的内在机理分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2006, 15(3): 315 -319 .
[7] 吴丰林,周德民,胡金明. 基于景观格局演变的城市湿地景观生态规划途径[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2007, 16(3): 368 .
[8] 张 兵,金凤君,于 良,. 基于区域化过程的边缘地区发展模式——以南阳市为例[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2007, 16(6): 704 .
[9] 段飞舟, 刘雪华. 四川马边彝族自治县土地利用/覆被变化分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2008, 17(3): 461 .
[10] 张镀光,王克林,陈洪松,李 新,王书功. 基于DEM的地形指数提取方法及应用[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2005, 14(6): 715 -719 .