长江流域资源与环境 >> 2021, Vol. 30 >> Issue (5): 1264-1274.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202105023

• 自然灾害 • 上一篇    下一篇

长江中下游极端降水时空演变特征研究

邹磊1,夏军1,2,张印2   

  1. (1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京 100101;
    2. 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北 武汉 430072)
  • 出版日期:2021-05-20 发布日期:2021-06-15

Spatial-temporal Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

ZOU Lei1,XIA Jun1,2, ZHANG Yin2   

  1. (1. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural
    Resources Research of CAS, Beijing 100101, China; 2. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and
    Hydropower Engineering Science of Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)
  • Online:2021-05-20 Published:2021-06-15

摘要: 以长江中下游为研究对象,基于131个气象站点1961~2017年的逐日降水资料,选取9种极端降水指数,利用Mann-Kendall趋势分析和交叉小波变换深入研究了长江中下游流域极端降水时空分布特征及其与太阳黑子和大气环流异常因子之间的关系。研究结果表明:(1)1961~2017年间,长江中下游流域极端降水指数除持续干燥指数(CWD)和持续湿润指数(CDD)外,其余7种降水指数均呈现上升趋势,其中年降水总量(PRCPTOT)达16.59 mm/10年;(2)除CDD、CWD外,其余极端降水指数均呈现由流域东南部向三面递减的半环状变化趋势,多数极端降水指数在洞庭湖流域、长江下游及太湖流域上升趋势显著;(3)设计重现期为50年时,除CDD、CWD外,其余极端降水指数空间分布由东南部向西北部递减,两处异常分布可能与地形因素有关;(4)太阳黑子和大气环流异常因子对极端降水的变化有较强的影响,其中太阳黑子的影响最大,ENSO次之,PDO最弱。该研究结果可为极端降水事件驱动力的深入探究奠定基础,进而为防灾减灾工作提供依据和支撑。

Abstract: Based on the daily precipitation data of 131 meteorological stations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin between 1961 and 2017. A total of nine indices were selected to represent extreme precipitation characteristics in this area. We studied the temporal and spatial distribution of extreme precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin and its relationship with the large-scale atmospheric circulation and sunspot by using trend analysis and cross-wavelet transform. This results showed: (1) Between 1961 and 2017, the extreme precipitation indexes increased in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin except for the consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD); (2) Except for CDD and CWD, the extreme precipitation indexes showed semi-circular trends that decreased from the southeast of the basin to three sides, there were significant increases of the most extreme precipitation indexes at Doting Lake Basin, the lower Yangtze River Basin and Taihu Basin during 1961-2017; (3) While the design return period was set up at 50 years, the spatial distribution of all the extreme precipitation indices (except the CDD and CWD) presented the decreasing from the southeast to the northwest, the two anomalous distributions parts may be related to topographical factors; (4) Sunspot was shown as the most significant effect on the extreme precipitation, followed by ENSO, and PDO has the weakest effect. The results of this study can be the foundation for the investigation of extreme climate event driving forces and climate prediction, and provide support for disaster prevention and reduction.

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