Abstract: As the focus of research on the development of ecological civilization in the contemporary world, ecological carrying capacity plays a significant role in the scientific management of balance between the development of humans and that of nature. In this paper, with a total of 16 prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province as the research units, the ecological carrying capacity model obtained after parameter modification is applied to calculate the overall and per capita ecological carrying capacity for the whole of Anhui Province and each individual city. In the meantime, mathematical statistical analysis is conducted to comparatively characterize the changes occurring to the ecological carrying capacity in Anhui Province between 1998 and 2018. Additionally, geographic probes are employed to investigate the difference made by various factors to the ecological carrying capacity in Anhui Province. The research results are summarized as follows. Firstly, the modified model parameters based on "provincial hectares" are clearly different from other scales, with the difference showing significance. Secondly, the ecological carrying capacity across the province shows an upward trend, while the per capita ecological carrying capacity shows a significant downward trend on a provincial level. For each individual city, its ecological carrying capacity varies significantly, which is different from other cities. The per capita ecological carrying capacity is highly polarized between different cities, with the upward and downward trends being different on the overall level. Thirdly, the ecological carrying capacity deteriorates to some extent for all cities studied, with the north of Anhui being notably advantageous over the south, which conforms to a distinctive spatial pattern of ‘uphill from the south to the north’. Lastly, among the influencing factors, the capacity of environmental governance, the model of economic development, the level of social development and others are on the increase, while the role of population pressure is weakened. Besides, the combined effect of dual factor is more significant compared to than a single one. In this sense, it is necessary to continue paying attention to how the ecological carrying capacity would change, optimize the ecological carrying capacity area in a sensible way, and ensure that the social and economic development is proportionate to the bottom line of resources supply.