长江流域资源与环境 >> 2024, Vol. 33 >> Issue (3): 625-633.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202403015

• 生态环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

1961~2020年三峡库区极端降水的变化特征研究

艾婉秀,赵珊珊*,陈鲜艳,杨明珠   

  1. (国家气候中心,北京 100081)
  • 出版日期:2024-03-20 发布日期:2024-04-03

Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region During 1961~2020

AI Wan-xiu,ZHAO Shan-shan,CHEN Xian-yan,YANG Ming-zhu   

  1. (National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,China)
  • Online:2024-03-20 Published:2024-04-03

摘要: 极端降水对于三峡水利工程的调度蓄水和防洪调控具有重要的作用,在气候变化背景下三峡库区极端降水的变化特征值得研究。基于三峡库区1961~2020年33个气象台站的降水观测资料,分析了该地区小时、日和连续降水量极端降水的时空变化特征。结果表明,三峡库区小时降水量、日降水量和连续降水量极大值的空间分布均呈东南部大、西南部和东北部小的特征,但历年最大值的变化趋势空间分布存在差异。三峡库区小时、日和连续降水量极端事件的阈值均呈“东大西小”的分布特征,其中湖北鹤峰的日降水量和连续降水量极端事件阈值均为各站点中最大。在气候增暖背景下,三峡库区日降水量极端事件在夏季尤其是6~7月发生频次增多,连续降水量极端事件更集中发生在夏季,小时和日降水量极端事件年频次自2001年以后呈增加趋势,这可能会加重三峡库区的暴雨洪涝灾害风险。

Abstract: Extreme precipitation plays an important role in the regulation, storage, and flood control of the Three Gorges Reservoir.The changing characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Three Gorges Reservoir region (TGRR) under the background of global warming are worth studying.Based on the observational precipitation data of 33 meteorological stations in TGRR from 1961 to 2020, the spatial-temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation events for hourly, daily and consecutive precipitation in TGRR were analyzed.The results showed that the spatial distribution of the maximum hourly precipitation, daily precipitation, and consecutive precipitation was greater in southeastern TGRR than in other areas, and less in southwestern and northeastern TGRR than in other areas.However, the spatial distributions of the trend of the annual maximum hourly precipitation, daily precipitation and process precipitation were different from each other.The threshold values of extreme hourly precipitation, daily precipitation, and consecutive precipitation events in TGRR were all large in eastern TGRR and small in western TGRR.The maximum threshold value of daily precipitation and consecutive precipitation extreme event occurred at Hefeng in Hubei province.Under the background of global warming, the frequency of extreme daily precipitation events in TGRR increased in summer, especially in June and July.The distribution of monthly frequency of extreme consecutive precipitation events was bimodal during 1961~1990, with the main peak in June and secondary peak in September, respectively.During 1991~2020, the monthly frequency of extreme consecutive precipitation events was more concentrated in summer, with the peak in June.The annual frequency of extreme hourly precipitation, daily precipitation events showed an increasing trend, while that of extreme consecutive precipitation events had a decreasing trend during 1961~2020.However, the increasing trends were found for all since 2001, and the trends of extreme hourly precipitation and daily precipitation events were significant at the significance level of 0.05.Our findings suggested that more attention should be paid to extreme precipitation observation, which may raise the risk of rainstorm and flood disasters in TGRR, in flood seasons.

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