长江流域资源与环境 >> 2026, Vol. 35 >> Issue (1): 29-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202601003

• 区域可持续发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

多维视角下长江经济带城市韧性时空特征及其障碍诊断

何  康1,李世祥1*,宋玉娥2,王长骥1,张心怡3,刘梦茹1   

  1. (1.中国地质大学(武汉)公共管理学院,湖北 武汉 430074; 2.湖北省自然灾害应急技术中心,湖北 武汉 430064;  3.武汉大学艺术学院,湖北  武汉 430072)
  • 出版日期:2026-01-20 发布日期:2026-01-20

Spatial-temporal Characteristics and Obstacle Diagnosis of Urban Resilience in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from A Multi-dimensional Perspective

HE Kang1,LI Shi-xiang1,SONG Yu-e2,WANG Chang-ji1,ZHANG Xin-yi3, LIU Meng-ru1   

  1. (1.School of Public Administration, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China;
    2.Hubei Natural Disaster Emergency Technology Center, Wuhan 430064, China;
    3.Wuhan University School of Arts,Wuhan 430072, China)
  • Online:2026-01-20 Published:2026-01-20

摘要: 准确评估城市韧性及诊断核心障碍因子对城市高质量发展具有重要意义。以长江经济带为研究区,从经济韧性、社会韧性、制度韧性、生态韧性和基础设施韧性5个维度对城市韧性进行测度,耦合空间自相关、时间序列聚类等方法揭示2003~2021年城市韧性时空演化特征,基于障碍度模型识别其核心障碍因子。主要结果如下:(1)长江经济带城市韧性水平逐年上升,增长趋势可划分为萌芽期、稳步增长期和快速提升期3个阶段。(2)上中下游地区的城市韧性水平均呈现出持续上升态势,其中,下游地区城市韧性均值始终显著高于中游与上游,而中游地区和上游地区的相对差异较小。(3)长江经济带城市韧性水平呈现两头高,中间低的空间格局,存在显著的空间正向自相关性。局部空间自相关结果显示,长三角地区的高高集聚区范围有所收缩,上游地区的低低集聚区逐渐消失。(4)研究区城市韧性表现出4种主要演化模式,分别为持续提升型,持续下降型,先升后降型和波动下降型。(5)响应基础设施、产业转型、市政基础设施和生态环境是提高城市韧性的主要障碍。长江经济带应通过城市产业创新、响应基础设施升级和生态修复等方面之间的跨区域合作推进城市韧性稳步提升。

Abstract: Accurately assessing urban resilience and identifying core obstacle factors are of great significance to high-quality urban development.Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) as the study area, this paper measured urban resilience from five dimensions: economic resilience, social resilience, institutional resilience, ecological resilience, and infrastructure resilience.This study revealed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of urban resilience from 2003 to 2021 by coupling the methods of spatial autocorrelation and time series clustering.The core obstacle factors were identified based on the obstacle degree model.The main results were as follows: (1) The urban resilience level of the YREB had increased year by year, and the growth trend could be divided into three stages: the germination period, the steady growth period, and the rapid improvement period.(2) The urban resilience levels in the upper, middle, and lower reaches had all shown a continuous upward trend.Among them, the average urban resilience in the lower reaches was always significantly higher than that in the middle and upper reaches, while the relative difference between the middle and upper reaches was small.(3) The urban resilience level of the YREB presented a spatial pattern of high at both ends and low in the middle, with significant positive spatial autocorrelation.The results of local spatial autocorrelation showed that the scope of the high-high agglomeration area in the Yangtze River Delta had shrunk, and the low-low agglomeration area in the upper reaches had gradually disappeared.(3) The urban resilience in the study area indicated four main evolution modes, namely, the continuous improvement type, the continuous decline type, first rise then fall type, and the fluctuating decline type.(4) Response infrastructure, industrial transformation, municipal infrastructure, and ecological environment were the main obstacles to improving urban resilience.Cities in the YREB should promote the steady improvement of urban resilience through cross-regional cooperation in urban industrial innovation, response infrastructure upgrading, and ecological restoration.

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