RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2005, Vol. 14 >> Issue (6): 704-708.

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PREDICTION ON THE DYNAMICS OF WATER RESOURCE DEMAND WITH THE PROPOSAL OF CONTERMEASURES IN CHINA

LIANG Ren-jun,LIN Zhen-shan,CHEN Ling-ling   

  • Received:2004-12-29 Revised:2005-05-24 Online:2005-11-20
  • Contact: LIANG Ren-jun

Abstract: Water resource is not only an important material base for social economic development, but also an irreplaceable natural resource. To realize the magnificent goal,the 16th National Congress of Communist Party of China has proposed to build a welltodo society throughout the country, with water resource being the essential condition. This essay has established a dynamic model to predict the total water requirement in the country over the next two decades through the industry, agriculture and water demand of life. The prediction indicates that the water demand of our country is about 5 500 hundred million cubic meters by 2022 based on project 1,7 400 based on project 2, but the ability of national water supply may reach 650 billion cubic meters by 2020 and the water amount available to supply will be 6 100~6 500 hundred million cubic meters.The result of prediction in project 1 is less than the providing amount and larger in project 2.We are facing austere problems in project 2.

Key words: water resource, dynamics, prediction, proposal

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