RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2016, Vol. 25 >> Issue (09): 1466-1474.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201609018

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PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THE APPLICATION OF STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING IN AREM MODEL FLOOD FORECASTING

YIN Zhi-yuan1, LI Jun1, HU Xiao-mei2, PENG Tao1, YANG Fang3   

  1. 1. Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research, Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan 430074, China;
    2. Hubei Zhanghe Project Administra-tion Bureau, Jingmen 448100, China;
    3. Hubei Meteorological Information and Technological Support Centre, Wuhan 430074, China
  • Received:2015-12-30 Revised:2016-04-03 Online:2016-09-20
  • Supported by:
    Funding Projects:Key Fund of Science and Technology Development of Hubei Provincial Meteorological Bureau(2015Z02);Fund of State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(2014LASW-B09)

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Abstract: Using AREM model of precipitation forecasting, hourly precipitation data of the Zhanghe reservoir station and the reservoir inflow data from the 2006 to 2008, a statistical downscaling model of forecasting precipitation was established based on the grids at the spatial resolutions of 0.25° and 0.5°. At the same time, the simulation result of statistical downscaling model are carried out. The results showed that the proposed method can be used in the flood forecasting of Zhanghe reservoir. From the 2009 to 2010, four prediction experiments were carried out, and the results showed that the statistical downscaling model was not good at improving flood process efficiency, but there was a certain effect to reduce the peak flow forecasting relative error, the average relative error was reduced by about 10%, the peak time error was slightly decreased, too.

Key words: statistical downscaling, flood forecasting, AREM model, Xin'an River model

CLC Number: 

  • S4
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