长江流域资源与环境 >> 2014, Vol. 23 >> Issue (07): 905-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201407002

• 区域可持续发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

不同情景下的人口迁移及其对农村土地利用影响研究——以重庆市为例

郭欢欢,郑财贵,牛德利,陈晓军,冯晓红   

  1. (1 重庆市国土资源和房屋勘测规划院,重庆 400020;2国土资源部土地利用重点实验室重庆研究中心,重庆 400020)
  • 出版日期:2014-07-20

RESEARCH ON THE POPULATION FLOWING AND ITS IMPACT ON RURAL LAND USE IN THE DIFFERENT SCENARIO——CHONGQING AS AN EXAMPLE

GUO Huanhuan1,2, ZHENG Caigui1,2,NIU Deli1,2,CHEN Xiaojun1,2, FENG Xiaohong1,2   

  1. (1Chongqing Land Resources and Housing Surveying & Planning Institute, Chongqing 400020, China;
    2Chongqing Research Center,Key Laboratory of Land Use,Ministry of Land and Resources, Chongqing 400020, China)
  • Online:2014-07-20

摘要:

随着我国工业化和城镇化的深入推进,农村人口迁移趋势愈演愈烈。人口迁移导致的劳动力投入减少对农村土地利用存在威胁。运用情景模拟的方法,研究了不同情景下的人口迁移及其对耕地撂荒和宅基地闲置的威胁。研究表明:(1)重庆市未来人口迁移由4部分构成:都市区农村人口向城区迁移;都市区外农村人口向都市区集聚;都市区外农村人口向区域性中心城市和城镇集中;市外人口回流;(2)未来10 a,重庆市总人口流量46445~48481万,而对土地利用有影响的人口流量约36445~42481万;(3)预计到2020年,重庆市存在撂荒威胁的耕地约412~480万hm2;(4)预计到2020年,重庆市农村宅基地闲置潜力为597~611万hm2。建议改革限制农村耕地流转的政策,避免耕地撂荒;探索“复垦+流转”的农村闲置宅基地处置模式

Abstract:

 Under the impact of industrialization and urbanization, more and more rural residents are immigrating from countryside to cities In Chongqing, about 149 million rural residents in remote areas immigrated to the metropolitan developed economic circle in 2011 The migration of rural residents provide an opportunity of improving the rural land use intensity While with the limitation of property system and other factors, a decrease in agricultural labor induced by emigration maybe have a negative effect on the rural land use In a research in Chongqing, 1136% of emigration abandoned cultivated land, while in another research, 168% rural housing land was discarded for the rural households emigration Based on the population actuality of Chongqing in 2011 and “Chongqing urbanrural master plan (2007-2020)”, in this paper, the trend of population migration of Chongqing in the following 10 years was analyzed and the scenario analysis was employed to study the impact of rural residents emigration on farmland and rural housing land use Some advices to resolve the rural land use problem were proposed at last Conclusions are summarized as follows. (1) The rural residents emigration includes four parts: rural residents in metropolitan developed economic circle migrate to central city; rural residents in other county migrate to central city; rural residents in other county migrate to regional central cities and central towns; rural migration return (2) Growth rate of metropolitan developed economic circle population (Rct), growth rate of other county urban population (Rot) and rural migration return (W4) has relation to the [JP2]population affect on the rural land use (3) In the following 10 years, about 464 million rural residents will [JP]migrate to cities in scenario 1 while in scenario 2 and scenario 3 which is 477 and 485 (including metropolitan developed economic circle and regional central cities). (4) In the following 10 years, there are 364 to 425 million rural residents emigrate to city which will affect on the rural land use in different [JP2]scenarios (5) Supposed 10% households abandoned their farmland according to the research of Zhangbailin [JP]in Chongqing, about 412 to 480 thousands hectare farmland may be abandoned in the following 10 years which account 168% to 196% of farmlands in Chongqing (6) Supposed 168% households discarded their housing land according to the research of Zhaoyaping in Bishan county of Chongqing and according to the standard of 140 square meters per capita, and about 92 to 99 thousands hectare rural housing land may be abandoned in the following 10 years The total abandoned housing land may be up to between 597 to 611 thousands hectare which include the potential idle housing land in 2011 About 10741 to 10994 billion Yuan can be transferred to village from city according to the compensatory of land coupon which was explored in Chongqing In order to improve the rural land use intensity, the government should: (1) reform the land management system and encourage the households participate in land transfer; (2) explore the heterogeneous methods to resolve the idle rural housing land which include reclamation and transfer

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