长江流域资源与环境 >> 2014, Vol. 23 >> Issue (09): 1315-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201409019

• 生态环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于Paircopula函数和标准化径流指数的水文干旱频率分析——以南盘江流域为例

杨茂灵,王龙,余航,高瑞,雷腾云   

  1. (云南农业大学水利水电与建筑学院,云南 昆明 650201)
  • 出版日期:2014-09-20

ANALYSIS OF HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT FREQUENCY BASED ON THE PAIRCOPULA AND STANDARDIZED STREAMFLOW INDEX——USING NANPAN RIVER BASIN AS AN EXAMPLE

YANG Maoling,WANG Long,YU Hang,GAO Rui,LEI Tengyun   

  1. (College of Water Resources,Hydraulic Power and Architecture,Yunnan Agricultural University,Kunming 650201,China)
  • Online:2014-09-20

摘要:

选取南盘江流域3个水文站52 a(1961~2012年)的逐月径流资料,联合两个相邻站点,分别计算标准化径流指数(SSFI),运用游程理论识别52 a来不同站点干旱特征,并用Paircopula函数计算不同站点的联合重现期。结果表明:(1)52 a来3个站点干旱特征值的最大值都出现在2011~2012年;从单个站点看,52 a来沾益站的干旱次数、最大干旱历时、最大干旱烈度均大于高谷马站和江边街站,最大干旱峰值出现在江边街站;从联合站点看,中游以上高谷马站和沾益站的干旱特征值均大于中游以下高谷马站和江边街站,3个站点联合识别的干旱特征值大于中下游站点联合识别干旱特征值,小于中上游站点联合识别干旱特征值,上游干旱更严重;(2)Frank Paircopula函数的RMSE、AIC和BIC值最小,拟合程度最高,适合运用于南盘江流域干旱频率分析中;(3)运用Frank Paircopula函数计算得到3个水文站点2009~2012年的连续干旱重现期都在100~200 a,是52 a来最严重的一次干旱

Abstract:

As a complex natural phenomenon,drought is stochastic and has multiattributes.The stochastic theory and method is an effective tool to study droughts,and application of copulas remedies the deficiency of univariate analysis and overcomes the limitations of conventional bivariate models.In order to reduce the loss caused by drought,we studied the hydrological drought characteristics and drought frequency of the Nanpan River Basin to provide a basis for drought prediction.We used the monthly data of runoff collected from 3 hydrological stations of the Nanpan River Basin in 52 years (1961-2012),and calculated the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSFI) as the indicator.The hydrological drought characteristics of the Nanpan River Basin were analyzed based on the frequency of drought duration,drought intensity and drought peak in the recent 52 years.Moreover,the hydrologic drought frequency was analyzed through statistics by taking the drought frequency,drought duration,drought intensity,drought peak in the 1992-1993 year and 2011-2012 year,and return period of drought in the time scale as the indicator.The results indicated that the drought characteristic values of 3 hydrological stations of the Nanpan River basin were different,all of the largest drought peaks were more than 2 and drought becamfe very serious.From 1961 to 2012,the maximum of drought characteristic values appeared in the 2011-2012,and it was one of the most serious drought.From a single site,the drought frequency,maximum of drought duration and drought intensity of ZhanYi hydrological station were greater than Gao Guma and Jiang Bianjie hydrological stations.The hydrologic drought of ZhanYi became more serious than other hydrological stations,so it needs more attentions.In addition,the drought peak in the Jiang Bianjie hydrological station was the biggest.Looking from the joint sites,the drought characteristic values of drought duration,drought intensity and drought peak in the above middle were greater than below middle,but the characteristic values from the three hydrological stations fell between upstream and downstream,so the characteristic values of upstream became bigger,and the hydrologic drought was very serious.By using the RMSE,AIC and BIC evaluation,the results show that,for the entire basin sites,Frank copula constructed the paircopula had a better fit,and suitable for drought frequency analysis in the Nanpan River Basin.The second best copulas were Clayton and Gumbel copulas,while the fitting effects had no obvious difference.Beside AMH copula,the three paircopulas were all may be the optimal copula function for one site.Threedimension joint distribution models were constructed based on the best copulas functions,and the associated probability and return period of drought variables were calculated for Nanpan River Basin.The results of multivariate joint return period show that,the joint nonexceedance return period was less than cooccurrence nonexceedance return period ,the return period of 2009-2012 year was during the period of 100-200 years,which became one of the most severe drought in 52 years (1961-2012)

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