关键词: 耕地资源, 工业化, 城市化, 差异, 江苏省

Abstract:

The advance of industrialization and urbanization has a huge influence on quantity change in cultivated land;however,difference exists about the influence mechanism of industrialization and urbanization on quantity changing rate of cultivated land.Vector auto regression model was built in this article,and according to the data of Jiangsu Province (1990~2005),the influence variation of industrialization and urbanization on quantity changing rate of cultivated land was analyzed with the application of impulse response function and variance decomposition.It is shown that changing rate of cultivated land,industrialization and urbanization level show nonstationary changing trend,but the influences of industrialization and urbanization on the quantity changes of cultivated land are different with each other.Industrialization has a negative effect on changing rate of cultivated land;urbanization has a positive effect on this rate.At the same time,the influence of urbanization on quantity change in cultivated land will be greater than that produced by industrialization，and the influence of urbanization will be more permanent than that of industrialization,indicating that urbanization plays an important role in changing quantity of cultivated land in the period of industrialization and urbanization's soaring increase in Jiangsu.Therefore,considering the imbalance development of industrialization and urbanization in Jiangsu,the conclusion that controlling industrialization reasonably and advancing quality of urbanization will be greatly meaningful for cultivated land protection.〖

Key words: cultivated land resource, industrialization, urbanization, difference, Jiangsu Province〖