1960~2010年长江流域极端降水的时空演变及未来趋势

doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201703014

长江流域资源与环境 >> 2017, Vol. 26 >> Issue (03): 436-444.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201703014

1960~2010年长江流域极端降水的时空演变及未来趋势

潘欣¹, 尹义星¹, 王小军^2,3

1. 南京信息工程大学水文气象学院, 江苏南京 210044;
2. 南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室, 江苏南京 210029;
3. 水利部应对气候变化研究中心, 江苏南京 210029

收稿日期:2016-08-10 修回日期:2016-11-14 出版日期:2017-03-20
通讯作者: 尹义星,E-mail:yyxrosby@126.com E-mail:yyxrosby@126.com
作者简介:潘欣(1993~),男,硕士研究生,主要从事水文气象学方面的研究.E-mail:panxin1008@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（41671022）；江苏省普通高校自然科学研究资助项目（15KJB170014）；中国博士后科学基金项目（2013M531384）；江苏省博士后科研资助计划（1301136C）

SPATIO-TEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS AND FUTURE TREND OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION IN THE YANGTZE RIVER BASIN DURING 1960 TO 2010

PAN Xin¹, YIN Yi-xing¹, WANG Xiao-jun^2,3

1. College of Hydrometeorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
2. Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing 210029, China;
3. Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210029, China

Received:2016-08-10 Revised:2016-11-14 Online:2017-03-20
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.416710 22);Natural Science Foundation of the Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (No.15KJB170014);China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Funded Project (No.2013M531384);Jiangsu Planned Projectsfor Postdoctoral Research Funds (No.1301136C)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文采用长江流域内分布较均匀、无缺测站点的1960~2010年逐日降水资料，借助趋势和突变分析、R/S分析和水文频率分析等方法，研究该流域极端降水的时空演变特征和未来趋势。结果表明：（1）长江流域区域平均气候平均降水量（PAV）、简单日降水强度（PINT）、强降水贡献率（PQ95）、强降水阈值（PF95）、最大1日-10日降水量（PX1D-PX10D）基本均呈上升趋势，中下游各极端降水指数均大于上游，同时，中下游的各指数年际变化比上游更剧烈。（2）PAV与PF95的空间分布类似，但前者在流域中部地区下降、两侧上升，而后者为中部上升、两侧下降；PINT与PQ95的空间分布相似，均为大部分地区呈上升趋势，仅西北部下降。PX1D-PX10D总体上以上升为主，但随着持续时间的增长，下降的区域有明显的扩大，而上升的区域有明显的缩小。（3）未来长江流域极端降水将以现有趋势继续发展，并将以上升趋势为主，流域洪涝灾害风险加大。（4）遂宁站PX1D、安化站PX10D极端降水的频率分析表明，直接采用整体数据计算设计降水量会使结果偏于不安全，对于较长重现期的设计降水表现更显著，因此对于极端降水量发生显著变化的情况需要深入研究，探讨更好的设计降水估计方法。

关键词: 长江流域, 极端降水, Hurst指数, 水文频率分析

Abstract: In this paper, no-missing daily precipitation data during 1960-2010 from uniformly distributed stations in the Yangtze River Basin were used, and spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and future trends of extreme precipitation were investigated with the help of trend and mutation analysis, R/S analysis and hydrologic frequency analysis method. The main results are as follows:(1) The regional average of PAV, PINT, PQ95, PF95 and PX1D-PX10D has an upward trend, and the values of the middle and lower reaches are higher than those of the upper reaches, and the changes of the indices in the middle and lower reaches are higher than those of the upper reaches. (2) The spatial distribution of PAV and PF95 is similar, but it shows negative trend in the middle and positive trend on the both sides for PAV, while it shows positive trend in the middle and negative on the both sides for PF95; The spatial distribution of PINT and PQ95 trend is similar, showing upward trend in most parts of the basin, but downward trend in the northwest of the basin. On the other hand, with the increase of duration from PX1D to PX10D, the areas where extreme precipitation decreases have significantly expanded while the area where extreme precipitation increases have significantly narrowed. (3) The extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River basin will remain the current trend in the future, and a majority of the extreme precipitation indices will on the increase in the future which will lead to the increase of flood risk in the basin. (4) Hydrological frequency analysis of extreme precipitation PX1D in Suining Station and PX10D in Anhua Station showed that design precipitation calculated based on the whole data is not sate. The difference will be larger with the increase of return periods, so new methods to estimate design precipitation should be investigated.

Key words: Yangtze River basin, extreme precipitation, Hurst indices, hydrological frequency analysis

中图分类号:

TV125

潘欣, 尹义星, 王小军. 1960~2010年长江流域极端降水的时空演变及未来趋势[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2017, 26(03): 436-444.

PAN Xin, YIN Yi-xing, WANG Xiao-jun. SPATIO-TEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS AND FUTURE TREND OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION IN THE YANGTZE RIVER BASIN DURING 1960 TO 2010[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2017, 26(03): 436-444.

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