长江流域资源与环境 >> 2022, Vol. 31 >> Issue (6): 1393-1402.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202206019

• 自然灾害 • 上一篇    下一篇

湖北夏季日极端降水事件的气候特征及环流分型

张灵1,熊开国1,周悦2   

  1. (1.武汉区域气候中心,湖北 武汉 430070;2.中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室,湖北 武汉 430205)
  • 出版日期:2022-06-20 发布日期:2022-07-11

Characteristics and Circulation Classification of Extreme Daily Precipitation Events in Hubei Province During Summer

ZHANG Ling1, XIONG Kai-guo1,ZHOU Yue2   

  1. (1.Wuhan Regional Climate Center, Wuhan 400070, China; 2.Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research, Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration,Wuhan 430205, China)
  • Online:2022-06-20 Published:2022-07-11

摘要: 利用1961~2018年6~8月湖北省日降水资料,采用百分位法定义湖北省夏季不同等级极端日降水事件,分析了不同等级极端日降水事件的特征及长期趋势,尝试采用PCT方法,将1981~2018年区域日极端降水气候事件的大尺度环流分为3种类型。结果表明:(1)受地形影响,不同等级日降水的阈值分布类似日降水量的气候平均态分布,呈现南多北少、西少东多,两者极值中心近乎重叠;(2)相对99%和90%分位,95%分位极端日降水的年均降水量对夏季降水量的百分比是最大的;(3)区域极端降水对应的3类环流特点分别是:I型为高空西南低槽、东北高压脊,低层为西南涡旋、东北反气旋;II型为高空江淮浅槽、东北弱高压脊,低层西南涡旋、渤海反气旋;III型为高空东北深槽,配合西南浅槽,两槽形成自东北至西南的倾斜槽,低层在西南和东北为明显的气旋;该分型结论与已有研究较为吻合。对比2020年7月6~7日湖北省发生的区域极端日降水事件的环流,该次事件符合III型,未来可为区域极端降水事件的天气分型和预报预测提供主观方法。

Abstract: Based on the daily precipitation data in Hubei Province from1961 to 2018, this paper analyzed the characteristics of extreme daily precipitation events by using the Percentile method. And, it also divided large-scale circulation of the extreme precipitation events from 1981 to 2018 into three main types with the method of PCT.The results show that:(1) The distribution of the threshold of extreme daily precipitation at different levels is similar to that of its climate state in this region, which is larger in the south and east than in the north and west.And the thresholds of these two factors overlap at the center.(2)Relative to the 99 percentile and 90 percentile,95 percentile makes the greatest contribution to summer rainfall. (3)Three PCT types are obtained,which is consistent with previous research: Southwest Low Trough and Northeast high Pressure Ridge in 500 hPa,Southwest Vortex and Northeast anticyclone in low-level for Type I; Jianghuai Trough, Northeast weak Ridge in 500 hPa, Southwest Vortex and Bohai Sea anticyclone in low-level for Type II; deep Northeast Trough and shallow Southwest trough, which formed inclined trough from the northeast to the southwest in 500 hPa, Southwest cyclone and northeast cyclone in low-level for Type III. Comparing the above-mentioned three circulation types,the circulation types reflected in the extreme daily precipitation events occurred in Hubei ProvinceRiver on July 6-7, 2020, is Type III which can be offered as an subjective approach to classification and prediction of extreme precipitation events in the future.

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