长江流域资源与环境 >> 2024, Vol. 33 >> Issue (2): 336-346.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202402009

• 自然资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

水资源禀赋对水电梯级开发效率的影响路径

张锦,丁雅静


  

  1. (太原理工大学经济管理学院,山西 太原 030024)
  • 出版日期:2024-02-20 发布日期:2024-03-06

Impact Path of Water Resource Endowment on Efficiency of Cascade Hydropower Development

ZHANG Jin, DING Ya-jing   

  1. (College of Economics and Management, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China)
  • Online:2024-02-20 Published:2024-03-06

摘要:  资源禀赋对资源开发效率的影响及其影响路径一直是资源开发过程的关键科学问题。聚焦于水资源,基于数据包络分析构建水电梯级开发效率评价方法,并以水电梯级开发效率为被解释变量,以水资源禀赋为核心解释变量,包括径流资源总量和径流空间格局,以水电开发模式为中介变量,包括集约性开发模式和多样性开发模式,共纳入331座大中型水电站,组成了22条流域的面板数据,通过中介效应模型分析水资源禀赋对水电梯级开发效率的影响路径。主要结论为:(1)纳入水电开发的期望产出与非期望产出后,流域间的水电梯级开发效率差异较大,多数流域处于低效率或较低效率,在1996~2020年间案例流域的平均效率为0.258;(2)水资源禀赋显著影响了水电梯级开发效率。径流资源总量产生正向影响,水电集约性开发模式在其中发挥了中介作用。径流空间格局产生负向影响,水电集约性开发模式和多样性开发模式在其中都发挥了中介作用;(3)径流资源总量越丰富,越有利于水电集约性开发。径流空间格局越复杂,越不利于水电梯级开发。集约性开发模式和多样性开发模式在适合的水资源禀赋条件下都能提升水电梯级开发效率。这些结论将为优化流域水电梯级开发布局提供理论依据。

Abstract: The impact of resource endowment on resource exploitation efficiency and its influencing path is always a key scientific problem in the process of resource exploitation. In this paper, we established an efficiency evaluation method for cascade hydropower development based on data envelopment analysis. The efficiency of cascade hydropower development was taken as the explained variable. Water resource endowment was taken as the core explanatory variable, which included the runoff amount and runoff spatial pattern. Hydropower development mode was taken as the mediating variable, which included intensive development mode and diverse development mode. We chose the main hydropower development watershed as the case areas, including 331 large and median-sized hydropower plants and formed the panel data of 22 watersheds. The mediating effect model was used to verify the influencing path of water resource endowment on efficiency of cascade hydropower development. The results showed that: (1) Taking the expected and unexpected outputs of hydropower development into consideration in the efficiency model, the efficiency of cascade hydropower development varied greatly among watersheds, most watersheds were in low or relative low efficiency, and the average efficiency was only 0.258 during 1996-2020. (2) Water resource endowment had a significant impact on the efficiency of cascade hydropower development. The runoff amount posed a positive impact on the efficiency of cascade hydropower development, and the intensive development mode played a mediating effect towards this positive impact. Meanwhile, the runoff spatial pattern posed a negative impact on the efficiency of cascade hydropower development, and the intensive development mode and diverse development mode all played a mediating effect towards this negative impact. (3) The runoff amount was beneficial to the intensive development of hydropower, but the runoff spatial pattern was indicated as disadvantageous to the cascade development of hydropower. The intensive development mode and the diverse development mode were all beneficial to improve the efficiency of cascade hydropower development under the suitable water resource endowment condition. These conclusions provided theoretical basis for optimizing the spatial pattern of watershed cascade hydropower development.

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