长江流域资源与环境 >> 2025, Vol. 34 >> Issue (2): 280-294.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202502004

• 区域可持续发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

长江经济带三大城市群经济韧性时空演变与影响因素研究——基于不同城市类型视角

丁晨浩1,高鑫2*,易兴1   

  1. (1. 重庆师范大学地理与旅游学院,重庆 401331; 2. 重庆师范大学城乡规划与人居环境研究所,重庆 401331)
  • 出版日期:2025-02-20 发布日期:2025-02-28

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Economic Resilience in Three Major Urban Clusters in the Yangtze River Economic Belt: A Perspective Based on Different City Types

DING Chen-hao1, GAO  Xin2, YI Xing1   

  1. (1. College of Geography and Tourism, Chongqing Normal University, Chongqing 401331, China; 2. Institute of Urban and Rural Planning and Habitat Environment, Chongqing Normal University, Chongqing 401331, China)
  • Online:2025-02-20 Published:2025-02-28

摘要: 随着近年来经济环境愈发复杂,在各类外部冲击下开展不同产业结构视角的经济韧性研究对于区域经济安全和高质量发展具有重要意义。选取长江经济带三大城市群各地级市为研究对象,根据主导产业类型将城市划分为农、林、牧、渔业;矿业;制造业等7种类型,采用“反事实数据”方法对2008~2022年经济韧性进行测度并采用个体固定面板模型展开影响因素分析,主要得到以下结论:(1)2020年新冠肺炎疫情对经济韧性的影响要显著高于2008年经济危机,各类型城市经济韧性反应路径和速度显著不同。(2)2008和2020年两次冲击期,三大城市群的经济韧性空间格局基本一致,呈现出成渝城市群的西北地区韧性“洼地”、长江中游城市群的北低南高、长三角城市群的北高南低的空间格局特征。(3)不同类型城市分阶段回归结果表明:2008~2012年外贸依存度、金融发展水平、经济集聚指数、金融发展水平起正向促进作用,政府措施和城镇化率起负向阻碍作用;2013~2017年城镇化率起正向促进作用,科技投入水平、金融发展水平起负向阻碍作用;2018~2022年产业多样化指数、科技投入水平起正向促进作用。

Abstract: Economic environment has been growing more and more complex. Study on economic resilience from different industrial structure perspectives under various external shocks is crucial for regional economic security and high-quality development. This study focused on the cities within the three major urban clusters of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The cities were classified into the following types based on the dominant industries: agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fisheries, mining, and manufacturing, etc.. The economic resilience was measured for 2008 to 2022, by using the "counterfactual data" method. The individual fixed panel model was employed to analyze the influencing factors. The main findings were as follows: (1) The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 on economic resilience was significantly greater than that of the 2008 economic crisis. Different types of cities showed significant variances in their resilience response in terms of paths and speeds. (2) During the shock periods of 2008 and 2020, the spatial patterns of economic resilience across the three major urban clusters remained essentially the same, which exhibited a "low-resilience" area in the northwest of the Chongqing urban cluster, a north-low-south-high pattern in the Middle Yangtze River urban cluster, and a north-high-south-low pattern in the Yangtze River Delta urban cluster. (3) At different stages from 2008 to 2012, factors of export dependency, the level of financial development, and the economic agglomeration index significantly influenced urban development. Specifically, the level of financial development exerted a positive impact, while the government measures and the urbanization rate had a negative influence. In the period of 2013 to 2017, the urbanization rate played a positive role in urban development, while the levels of technological input and financial development exhibited adverse effects. Finally, in the period of 2018 to 2022, the diversification index of industries and the level of technological input were identified as positive drivers for urban development.

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