长江流域资源与环境 >> 2026, Vol. 35 >> Issue (2): 428-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202602012

• 生态环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

长江经济带新型城镇化对水生态韧性的影响——基于引入改进的双重机器学习的DID研究

吕连菊1,2 ,阚大学1,2   

  1. (1.江西水利电力大学经济贸易学院,江西 南昌 330099;2.江西水利电力大学水经济与管理研究中心,江西 南昌 330099)
  • 出版日期:2026-02-20 发布日期:2026-02-26

Impact of New Urbanization on Water Ecological Resilience in the Yangtze River Economic Belt: A DID Study Based on Improved Double Machine Learning

LV Lian-ju 1,2,KAN Da-xue 1,2    

  1. (1.School of Economics and Trade, Jiangxi University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Nanchang 330099, China;
    2.Research Center of Water Economics and Management, Jiangxi University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Nanchang 330099, China)
  • Online:2026-02-20 Published:2026-02-26

摘要: 在城镇化进程中提升水生态韧性对于实现人与自然和谐共生至关重要。采用1997~2023年城市面板数据,基于新型城镇化综合试点的准自然实验,将改进的双重机器学习方法引入双重差分法,就长江经济带新型城镇化对水生态韧性的影响进行了实证分析。结果表明,新型城镇化综合试点政策的估计系数为0072,在5%水平上显著,即新型城镇化综合试点政策有助于提高长江经济带试点城市水生态韧性,该结论在经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。异质性分析表明,新型城镇化综合试点政策对试点城市水生态韧性的促进作用在长江经济带上游和中游地区、环境规制水平高地区和中等地区通过了显著性检验,在长江经济带低分位点的水生态韧性地区最为明显。中介机制检验发现,新型城镇化综合试点政策通过要素集聚、技术进步、人力资本、产业结构、市场化等促进了长江经济带试点城市水生态韧性提升。

Abstract: Enhancing water ecological resilience during the urbanization process is crucial for achieving harmonious coexistence between humans and nature.The urban panel data from 1997 to 2023 were used in this study.An improved double machine learning method was employed to conduct an empirical analysis on the impact of new urbanization in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) on water ecological resilience.The results showed that the estimated coefficient of the comprehensive pilot policy for new urbanization was 0072, which was significant at the 5% level.That implied that the comprehensive pilot program for new urbanization was conducive to improving the water ecological resilience of pilot cities along the YREB.This conclusion remained valid after a series of robustness tests.Heterogeneity analysis indicated that the positive effect of the comprehensive pilot program for new urbanization on the water ecological resilience of pilot cities passed the significance test in the upper and middle reaches of the YREB and in regions with high and medium levels of environmental regulation, and was most pronounced in regions with low water ecological resilience.The mediation mechanism test revealed that the comprehensive pilot program for new urbanization promoted the improvement of water ecological resilience of pilot cities along the YREB through the effects of factor agglomeration, technological progress, human capital, industrial structure, and marketization

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