关键词: 食物波动, 聚类分析, 灰色关联分析, 全要素相对生产率

Abstract:

The efficiency and fluctuation of food production are important research contents in terms of food security. It is indicated that the stability of the three major food components, i.e. grain, oil and meat, has increased in Jiangxi Province, China. The average total factor relative productivity (TFRP) of food production was 0.974 in Jiangxi Province from 1993 to 2003. Food production exhibited basically the alternate fluctuation phenomenon between the increase in scale efficiencies and constant scale efficiencies in the province. A good relationship was observed between the food production fluctuation and the fluctuation of food production factors, such as agricultural labour and irrigated area, with their importance having the following order: fluctuation of irrigated area > fluctuation of total plant area > fluctuation of agricultural labour > fluctuation of input agricultural capital > fluctuation of consumption of chemical fertilizer. It is shown that the food fluctuation trend coincided basically with the TFRP from 1978 to 2003 in Jiangxi Province. The TFRP was high when food fluctuation was low or food expression had great positive fluctuation,and when food expression experienced great negative fluctuation,the TFRP was low accordingly.

Key words: food fluctuation, cluster analysis, grey relation analysis, total factor relative productivity (TFRP)