关键词: 耕地变化, 最小人均耕地面积, 耕地压力指数, 粮食安全, 浙江省

Abstract:

By using regression analysis and prognostic theory, the minimum cropland acreage per capita, and cropland pressure index model were analyzed with the consideration of changes in cropland, population and grain output since enforcement of the reforming policy. The cropland, population, grain output, minimum cropland acreage per capita and cropland pressure index were forecasted for the following 15 years. It was found that between 1978 and 2004 both the cropland and the grain output declined in contrast to the annual population growth, resulting in the rise of minimum cropland acreage per capita and pressure index on cropland,and consequently broadening the gap between the grain supply and need.With the rising population and the obvious decline of cropland acreage per capita in the following 15 years, minimum cropland acreage per capita and pressure index on cropland will also show some degree of decline.However, the boost of cropland productivity is at the cost of over exploitation on the cropland, leaving the grain issue still quite critical. Thus, countermeasures for the reduction of cropland pressure, guarantee of grain output security and sustainable development were proposed in this paper.

Key words: cropland change, minimum cropland acreage per capita, pressure index on cropland, grain security, Zhejiang Province