近50年鄱阳湖五大流域降水变化特征研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于鄱阳湖流域在江西省内部分对应的79县市气象站1960～2006年逐日降水观测资料，采用线性回归的方法分别研究五大流域的年降水量、降水日数、暴雨日数等3要素的变化趋势，并用Mann法进行了变化趋势的显著性检验，用距平与均方差之比达到15和20作为气候异常检验指标，对各流域的各时间序列进行了异常检验，采用了MannKendall法对各时间序列进行突变检测。结果表明：（1）各流域的年降水量变化趋势基本一致，年降水量与年暴雨日数密切相关；饶河流域强降水事件较多，降水强度大，赣江中游流域降水时间分布相对较均匀，强降水事件较少；（2）各流域年降水量、暴雨日数总体呈波动上升趋势，20世纪90年代以来暴雨日数异常偏多的概率最大；（3）年降水日数以20世纪80年代中期为界，之前呈波动上升趋势，之后呈波动下降趋势，2002年至今各流域降雨日数明显偏少；（4）各流域的年降水量、降水日数、暴雨日数均未出现趋势性的突变；（5）近50年来鄱阳湖流域降水时间分布不均的情况加剧，旱涝灾害风险增加。

关键词: 鄱阳湖五大流域, 降水量, 降水日数, 暴雨日数, 变化趋势

Abstract:

Based on annual precipitation observed data of the 79 county and city weather stations of the part correspondence over Poyang Lake basin in Jiangxi Province during 1960~2006,method of linear regression was used to study separately three essential factor change tendencies of annual precipitation,number of rain days and number of heavy rain days and so on in five major basins.Mann method has been carried on the significance test of change tendency.Ratio of departure and meansquare deviation which achieves 15 and 20 is as climatic anomalies test rating.Abnormity inspection to various time series of various basins had been carried out.Using the MannKendall Method to carry on the mutation test to various time series,results are summarized as below：（1）Annual precipitation change tendency of various basins is consistent.The correlation between annual precipitation and annual rainstorm day number is close.In Rao River basin where the precipitation intensity is larger than others there are more heavy precipitation events.Precipitation temporal distribution is relatively even in middle reaches basin of Ganjiang River,where strong precipitation events are fewer.（2）In various basins,time series of annual precipitation and rainstorm day number all display undulation escalation trend.Since 90s exceptionally more probabilities of rainstorm day number have been obvious.（3）Number of annual precipitation day showed undulatory increase before the middle of the 1980s and undulatory decline after the middle of the 1980s.Since 2002 trend of number of rain days has been obviously decreased in all river basins.（4）In various basins,annual precipitation,the precipitation day number and the rainstorm day number have not appeared trendy mutation.（5）Imbalance of annual precipitation temporal distribution is aggravating in Poyang Lake basin in recent 50 years, which leads dry and waterlogged disaster risk increasing.

Key words: five major river systems of Poyang Lake, annual precipitation, number of rain days, number of heavy rain days〖QS〗；change trend

王怀清, 赵冠男, 彭静, 胡菊芳. 近50年鄱阳湖五大流域降水变化特征研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2009, 18(7): 615-.

WANG Fu-Qing, DIAO Guan-Nan, BANG Jing, HU Ju-Fang. PRECIPITATION CHARACTERISTICS OVER FIVE MAJOR RIVER SYSTEMS OF POYANG DRAINAGE AREAS IN RECENT 50 YEARS[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2009, 18(7): 615-.

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