关键词: 最高水位, 太湖, 梅雨, 热带气旋, 西北太平洋夏季风, 人类活动

Abstract:

The paper adopts the methods of cumulative anomaly and nonparametric tests to analyze the change of maximum water level (MWL) of Taihu Lake from 1954 to 1999,and detect its relation to the climate change.The change of Taihu Lake MWL can be divided into two periods with 1980s as the demarcation:the MWL decreased before the 80s and increased after the 80s.Meiyu and tropic cyclone directly influence on the variation of MWL,and it is indicated by Wilcoxon test that the change of MWL is closely correlated to western north pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM),while the correlation is not significant between minimum water level and WNPSM.Kendall’s test verified the consistency among the changes of MWL and climate factors.The MWL increased very fast after the 80s,human activities play an important role in this process.The anthropogenic activities such as river network change,lake reclamation and land use change were investigated about their role in the MWL change of Taihu Lake.The paper comes to the conclusion that the rise of Taihu MWL is still mainly determined by climate change factors,while human activities deteriorate the situations of MWL rise,and will play a more important role in the process.

Key words: maximum water level, Taihu Lake, Meiyu, tropic cyclone, WNPSM, human activity