长江流域资源与环境 >> 2013, Vol. 21 >> Issue (Z): 76-.

• 生态环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

滇中高原区降水量50年的时空变化

于晓丽 |马显莹 |顾世祥 |李 |靖   

  1. (1 云南农业大学水利水电与建筑学院|云南 昆明 650201;2 云南省水利水电科学研究院|云南 昆明 650228;3云南省水利水电勘测设计研究院|云南 昆明 650021
  • 出版日期:2013-09-20

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CHANGES OF PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL YUNNAN PLATEAU FOR THE LAST HALF CENTURY

YU Xiaoli1, MA Xianying2, GU Shixiang3, LI Jing1   

  1. (11.College of Water Resource,Hydropower and Architecture, Yunnan Agriculture University, Kunming 650201, China;2.Yunnan Institute for water resources and hydraulic engineering science Research, Kunming 650228, China|3.Yunnan Institute for Investigation, Design and Research of Water Resources &|Hydropower Engineering, Kunming 650021, China
  • Online:2013-09-20

摘要:

根据云南境内滇中高原区的昆明、楚雄、大理、玉溪、蒙自、马龙等30个气象站自建站20世纪50年代~2010年的逐月降水量,逐年最大1 h、6 h、24 h降水量等资料,采用MannKendall 趋势检验、Morlet小波变换分析等对各站不同时间尺度的降水量变化趋势进行分析检验。结果表明,自有观测记录以来各站的短历时最大1 h、6 h、24 h降水量普遍呈增大趋势。而月、夏季、年降水量序列则有增有减,高原上宾川祥云、元谋、蒙自建水等各个传统的干旱区降水量都是持续增加,干湿季节的差异性在缩小,特殊地,马龙的短历时降水(最大1 h、6 h)显著地增大,但其最大月、夏季和年降水系列都为减少的相反趋势。总体上,最大1 h、6 h、24 h降水量呈4(或7)、23 a的周期性,最大月、夏季、年降水量则呈6、21 a的周期性。全球气候变化趋势的不可逆转性,使滇中高原区极端降水事件发生的频次不仅越来越多,其变化幅度也在呈增大趋势

Abstract:

Precipitation data of 30 meteorologic stations such as Kunming, Chuxiong, Dali, Mengzi, Malong, et al.in central Yunnan plateau from 1950s to 2010, various time scale including annual maximum 1 hours, 6 hours, 24 hours, and maximum monthly, summer, yearly, were collected.MannKendall test and Morlet wave methods were taken to research changing rules.The results show that in the whole region, annual maximum rainfall of 1 hours, 6 hours, 24 hours generally increased.Whereas, maximum monthly, summer and yearly precipitation series presented increased or decreased at those stations.But precipitation were increased and the disparity between rainy and drought season gradually shortened in traditional droughty areas of the plateau such as Binchuanxiangyun, Yuanmou, and Mengzijianshui, etc.Specially, Malong was increased at annual maximum short time rainfall while decreased at middle and long time dimension.The period of maximum rainfall series of 1 hours, 6 hours, 24 hours was 4 (or 7), 23 years, respectively.〖JP2〗In maximum monthly, summer, yearly time dimension, the period was focused on 6 and 21 years, respectively.It indicates that the unreversed trend of global climate change results in the frequency of rainstorm in central Yunnan plateau increasing gradually, and its extent spreads larger gradually.〖

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