1980年以来中国大宗作物空间格局变化分析

doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201701007

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用1980~2014年间的大宗作物（玉米、水稻、小麦、棉花、油菜）面积数据，以省级行政区为研究单元，采用多种数理统计和GIS空间分析技术，结合同期作物之间的竞争性用地关系，对全国上述五类大宗作物的空间分布格局及其变化特征进行分析。研究结果表明:玉米的空间分布相对较均衡；小麦的空间格局总的变化不明显但是省际分布最不均衡；棉花近30 a来空间格局变化极其显著，其面积重心从河南境内不断地向西北地区移动，目前位于甘肃省境内；油菜的面积重心自湖北境内不断地向南推移到湖南境内，水稻的面积重心则自江西境内逐渐向北移动到湖北境内。另外，部分区域的同期作物（如油菜与小麦、棉花与春玉米）空间格局变化存在明显的“消-长”关系，特别是在甘肃和内蒙，油菜小麦的面积变化有着极强的负相关性，其pearson系数低于-0.8。作物种植的成本收益变化是造成这些大宗作物空间格局变化的主要原因，城市化发展的程度、农民非农就业机会的高低、同期作物之间的比较效益差距等也是这些大宗作物时空格局产生变化的重要原因。

关键词: 空间格局变化, 洛伦兹曲线, 空间几何重心, Pearson相关分析, 大宗作物, 中国

Abstract: Using several mathematial statistical methods and GIS spatial analysis technology, variation characteristics of spatial distribution pattern of five national staple crops (i.e. rice, wheat, maize, cotton and rape) were analyzed based on the area data of the crops from 1980 to 2014. The results showed that spatial differentiation of the staple crops distribution was significant. The spatial distribution of maize was relatively balanced among the different provinces, but its Area Center (AC) transferred from Shandong Province to Hebei Province since 1980. The distribution of wheat was not balanced among different provinces, but the wheat's AC always located in Henan Province and its spatial pattern did not change significantly. The spatial pattern of cotton distribution varied significantly in recent thirty years, which was characterized by its area center moving from Henan Province to Gansu Province and the migration distance of cotton's AC was much larger than the other four staple crops. The AC of rice gradually moved north since 1980 and are presently located in Hubei Province. In recent thirty years, the regions, where rice acreage increased significantly, mainly concentrated in four provinces in Northeast China (i.e. Jilin Province, Liaoning Province, Heilongjiang Province and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region) and Yunnan Province. However, the rice acreage significantly reduced in Sichuan, Hubei, Guangxi and some provinces in Southern China. The rape's AC constantly went south from Hubei Province to Hunan Province. Moreover, there was a significant correlation between the spatial patterns of the crops with similar growth cycle in some regions. For example, when the acreage of rape increased in Sichuan and Hubei, the wheat acreage reduced simultaneously in these regions. The most obvious "growth-decline" relationship between the distribution patterns of rape and wheat arose in Qinghai, Gansu, Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, which was showed by the Pearson index smaller than -0.8. Similar "growth and decline"relationship was also found between the acreages of cotton and the maize in Shandong Province, Henan Province, Hebei Province and Shanxi Province.

Key words: spatial pattern change, lorenz curve, spatial geometric center of gravity, Pearson correspondence analysis, staple crops, China

中图分类号:

S565.4

徐慧, 汪权方, 李家永, 张景雄, 孙佩. 1980年以来中国大宗作物空间格局变化分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2017, 26(01): 55-66.

XU Hui, WANG Quan-fang, LI Jia-yong, ZHANG Jing-xiong, SUN Pei. VARIATION OF STAPLE CROPS' SPATIAL PATTERN IN CHINA SINCE 1980 a[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2017, 26(01): 55-66.

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