1961~2010年中国大尺度区域暴雨时空分布特征研究

doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201704017

长江流域资源与环境 >> 2017, Vol. 26 >> Issue (04): 631-640.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201704017

1961~2010年中国大尺度区域暴雨时空分布特征研究

孔锋^1,2,3, 刘凡^2,3,4, 吕丽莉¹, 方建⁵, 方佳毅^2,3,4, 史培军^2,3,4, 郭建平⁶

1. 中国气象局发展研究中心, 北京 100081;
2. 民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院, 北京 100875;
3. 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 北京 100875;
4. 北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室, 北京 100875;
5. 武汉大学资源与环境科学学院, 湖北武汉 430079;
6. 中国气象科学研究院大气成分研究所, 北京 100081

收稿日期:2016-07-27 修回日期:2016-11-22 出版日期:2017-04-20
作者简介:孔锋(1986~),男,工程师,博士,主要研究方向为气候变化与自然灾害.E-mail:kongfeng0824@foxmail.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目“基于未来情景的长江流域洪水灾害风险评估”（41601561）；国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目（41621061）

RESEARCH ON SPATIOTEMPORAL PATTERN OF LARGE-SCALE REGIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IN CHINA FROM 1961 TO 2010

KONG Feng^1,2,3, LIU Fan^2,3,4, LU Li-li¹, FANG Jian⁵, FANG Jia-yi^2,3,4, SHI Pei-jun^2,3,4, GUO Jian-ping⁶

1. Research Centre for Strategic Development, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
2. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
3. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs&Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, China;
4. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
5. School of Resources and Environmental Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China;
6. Institute of Atmospheric Composition, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

Received:2016-07-27 Revised:2016-11-22 Online:2017-04-20
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation Project "Flood risk assessment in Yangtze River basin based on future scenarios" (41601561);National Natural Science Foundation of Innovative Research Group Project (41621061)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 长时间大范围的区域暴雨作为一种极端天气气候事件，是人民生产生活的一大威胁，已成为社会和学界的关注焦点之一，亟需研究中国长时间序列区域暴雨的时空演变特征。通过定义的区域暴雨事件，选取持续天数、影响站点数、最大日降雨量和最大累积降雨量4项指标，统计分析了1961~2010年中国区域暴雨的时空变化格局。结果表明：在空间格局上，1961~2010年中国区域暴雨主要分布在黑龙江漠河至云南腾冲一线以东的东部沿海季风区，而西北内陆则无区域暴雨发生；在省际分布上，多集中发生在以广东为首的东部沿海省市；在时间序列上，中国区域暴雨存在准10a（6.5a和13a）的周期振荡，以1997年前后年份发生次数较多，年内多集中在5~9月，且4项指标均在6月份达到最高。

关键词: 区域暴雨, 大尺度格局, 年际变化, 月际变化, 中国

Abstract: China's flooding disasters by heavy rainfall occurred frequently in recent years. Regional heavy rainfall lasting long time and with a wide range is a kind of extreme weather events that is a serious threat to the society. Regional heavy rainfall has become the focus of attention of the society and academic circles. Therefore, it is necessary to study the spatiotemporal pattern of regional heavy rainfall in China in recent years. Selection based on the definition of regional heavy rainfall, last days, impact station number, maximum daily precipitation and cumulative precipitation as the four indicators, statistical analysis of the China regional heavy rainfall spatiotemporal pattern between 1961 and 2010 was carried out in this study. The results showed that:China's regional heavy rainfalls are mainly distributed in the east region as a result of monsoon of the line between Mohe in Heilongjiang province and Tengchong in Yunnan province. Regional heavy rainfalls are more concentrated in eastern coastal provinces and cities, led by Guangdong province. In temporal dimension, China's regional heavy rainfall is quasi periodic oscillations in ten years (6.5 and 13 years) and occurred more with around 1997. Regional heavy rainfall are more concentrated in May to September during a year from long-term period, and four indicators reached the highest in June.

Key words: regional heavy rainfall, large scale pattern, annual variation, monthly variation, China

中图分类号:

TV125

孔锋, 刘凡, 吕丽莉, 方建, 方佳毅, 史培军, 郭建平. 1961~2010年中国大尺度区域暴雨时空分布特征研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2017, 26(04): 631-640.

KONG Feng, LIU Fan, LU Li-li, FANG Jian, FANG Jia-yi, SHI Pei-jun, GUO Jian-ping. RESEARCH ON SPATIOTEMPORAL PATTERN OF LARGE-SCALE REGIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IN CHINA FROM 1961 TO 2010[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2017, 26(04): 631-640.

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