长江流域资源与环境 >> 2018, Vol. 27 >> Issue (07): 1385-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201807011

• 自然资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

云南省水资源承载力评价与时空分布特征研究

伍文琪,罗贤,黄玮。李运刚   

  1. (1.云南大学亚洲国际河流中心,云南 昆明 650091;2.云南省国际河流与跨境生态安全重点实验室,云南 昆明 650091;3.云南省气候中心,云南 昆明 650034)
  • 出版日期:2018-07-20 发布日期:2018-11-09

Research on the Water Resources Carrying Capacity and Its Temporal——Spatial Distribution Characteristics in Yunnan Province, China

WU Wenqi1,2, LUO Xian1,2, HUANG Wei3, LI Yungang1,2   

  1. (1. Asian International Rivers Center of Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China;2. Yunnan Key Lab of International Rivers and Transboundary Ecosecurity, Kunming 650091, China; 3. Yunnan Climate Center, Kunming 650034, China
  • Online:2018-07-20 Published:2018-11-09

摘要: 水资源承载力是衡量一个地区社会经济发展潜力的重要方面。选取水资源、社会、经济和生态环境评价指标,构建了区域水资源承载力综合评价模型;通过分析经济压力指数、人口压力指数、承载压力指数及协调指数,对云南省水资源的承载能力和利用状况进行评价,并探讨了其时空分布特征。结果表明:(1)云南省水资源与生产力布局、人口分布不协调,滇中地区经济相对发达,人口数量大,而水资源量较少,多属于轻度超载或濒临超载地区;(2)随着人口增加和经济发展,区域内水资源承载压力逐渐增大,如滇东北地区的昭通市由水资源承载适宜地区转变为水资源濒临超载地区,而滇西部地区的德宏市水资源承载力由承载盈余变为承载适宜;(3)从整体上看,目前云南省水资源利用率较低,工程性缺水问题较为突出。未来水利工程尤其是滇中引水等的建设及运行,将有效缓解水资源超载问题

Abstract: Water resources carrying capacity is an important index that is used to measure the sustainable social and economic development. This paper selects the evaluation indexes of the water resources, social, economic and ecological environment system, and then establishes regional comprehensive evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity. Based on the analysis of the indexes of economic pressure, population pressure, carrying pressure and coordination, we get a comprehensive evaluation for the carrying capacity and the water resources utilization. In addition, the temporalspatial distribution characteristics of water resources carrying capacity in Yunnan Province are explored. The results showed that: the spatial distributions of water resources are not coordinated with the layout of economic development and population in Yunnan, most Central Yunnan Province are classified as the lightly overloaded area or close to overloaded areas, which is due to a great number of population and relatively prosperous economy, but less water resources. On the other hand, with the rapid population growth and economic development, the stress of regional water resources carrying capacity gradually increased during these study period years. For example, Zhaotong, located in the Northeastern Yunnan Province, turned into the edge of the overloaded area from the suitable area of water resources carrying capacity. In addition, the water resources carrying capacity of Dehong in the Southwestern Yunnan Province transformed to suitable carrying capacity from the surplus state of carrying capacity.  In general, water resources development and utilization in Yunnan Province is still lower, and the problem of water resources shortage, which mainly results from engineering water shortage, is more and more severe. In the future, the construction and operation of the hydraulic engineering, especially the Central Yunnan Diversion Project, would effectively alleviate the overloading problem of water resources in Yunnan Province.

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