长江流域资源与环境 >> 2020, Vol. 29 >> Issue (5): 1236-1247.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202005019

• 农业发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

近40年来中国农作物与耕地受灾时空特征及影响因素分析

孔冬艳,陈会广   

  1. (南京农业大学公共管理学院,江苏 南京 210095)
  • 出版日期:2020-05-20 发布日期:2020-07-13

An Analysis of Spatial-temporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors for China’s Crop and Cropland Suffered Natural Disaster in Recent 40 Years

KONG Dong-yan, CHEN Hui-guang   

  1. (College of Public Administration, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China)
  • Online:2020-05-20 Published:2020-07-13

摘要: 摘  要: 中国作为农业大国和自然灾害最严重的国家之一,自然灾害会对农作物和耕地造成严重影响。基于1978~2017年中国31个省(自治区、直辖市)农作物受灾面积与灾毁耕地面积等灾情数据,结合气温、降水等气象数据和地形数据,采用计量分析、Morlet小波分析和空间分析等方法,分析我国农作物和耕地受灾的时空分布特征,并探究农作物受灾面积的周期性以及农作物受灾面积、灾毁耕地面积与气温、降水和地形之间的关系。结果表明:1978~2017年农作物受灾主要以旱灾和水灾为主,农作物受灾面积和灾毁耕地面积均呈下降趋势,且农作物受灾面积有30年左右的显著变化周期;不同灾种的空间分布存在差异,其中农作物受灾较大的区域主要是华北平原、东北平原和长江中下游平原等农业较为发达区域,灾毁耕地面积主要分布在毗邻胡焕庸线两侧的省份(直辖市、自治区),且以西南地区为最,洪涝、滑坡、泥石流是造成灾毁耕地的主要原因;农作物水、旱灾害与降水,农作物冷冻灾害与气温,灾毁耕地与平均坡度、坡度大于15度面积比在置信区间呈现正、负、负、正、正的相关关系。在政策设计上掌握农作物和耕地受灾的时空特征和发生规律,将对减少农业自然灾害损失和提高防灾减灾能力具有重要的意义。

Abstract: Abstract:China is one of the countries suffered many serious natural disasters which have serious impact on crops and cropland as a big agricultural country. In this study, we use metrological, Morlet wavelet and spatial analysis methods to analyze the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of China’s crops and cropland suffered natural disaster, and to investigate the periodicity of crop suffered natural disaster area, and the relationship between the areas of crop and cropland suffered natural disaster and temperature, precipitation and topography based on the statistical data of the areas of crop and cropland suffered natural disaster from 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government), and combined with meteorological data (temperature, precipitation…) and topography. The results show that the crop suffered disasters were mainly caused by droughts and floods from 1978 to 2017, the areas of crop and cropland suffered natural disaster are shown downward tendency, moreover, there is significant change period about 30 years for crops area suffered disaster. Meanwhile, there are differences in the spatial distribution of different disasters. Among these, the crops’ areas with large areas affected by natural disasters are mainly more developed areas of agriculture such as the North China Plain, the Northeast Plain, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Cropland areas suffered natural disasters are mainly distributed adjacent to the provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) on both sides of the Hu Huanyong line, and the southwest of China is the most serious region. Floods, landslides, mudslides are the main reason which cause the cropland areas suffered natural disasters. There are positive, negative, negative, positive and positive correlations in the confidence interval between crop’s drought, flood and precipitation, crops’ freezing and temperature, cropland suffered natural disaster and average slope, slope is higher than 15 degrees. This study has an important significance for reducing natural disaster losses and improving defense disaster capabilities by studying the spatial-temporal characteristics of crops and cropland suffered natural disaster in China. By studying the spatial-temporal characteristics of crops and cropland affected by natural disasters in policy design, it will be an important significance for reducing natural disaster losses and improving our national defense disaster mitigation capabilities.

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