长江流域资源与环境 >> 2022, Vol. 31 >> Issue (12): 2568-2581.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202212002

• 区域可持续发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

长三角城市群绿色发展水平的时空演变及趋势预测

徐小鹰,田焮焮   

  1. (中南民族大学经济学院,湖北 武汉 430074)
  • 出版日期:2022-12-20 发布日期:2023-01-13

Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Trend Prediction of Green Development Level of Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations

XU Xiao-ying, TIAN Xin-xin   

  1. (School of Economics, South-Central University for Nationalities, Wuhan 430074, China)
  • Online:2022-12-20 Published:2023-01-13

摘要: 绿色发展能有效缓解生态环境问题,推动新时代长三角城市群实现更高质量的一体化发展。在梳理绿色发展理论和作用机理的基础上,构建了科技创新、经济增长、资源利用、环境治理、环境质量、绿色生活六个维度的绿色发展指标评价体系,采用熵值法、Kernel密度估计、BP时间序列预测模型,测算和分析了2006~2019年长三角城市群的绿色发展水平及其时空演变特征和未来变化趋势。结果表明:(1)研究期内,长三角城市群绿色发展水平总体上呈现波动上升,2008~2009和2011~2013年受金融危机和产业转移影响,部分城市绿色发展水平出现下降。(2)城市间绿色发展水平差异日渐凸显,存在两极分化特征并有向三极分化转化的趋势,同时空间上分布不平衡。(3)“十四五”预测期内绿色发展水平将进一步攀升,北部和南部地区绿色发展水平得到改善,但西部地区依旧处于较低水平。(4)绿色发展水平等级转移均发生在相邻等级之间,没有出现“跳级”现象,说明长三角城市群绿色发展存在“瓶颈”。最后基于长三角城市群区域特征,提出相应的绿色发展建议。

Abstract: Since green development can effectively alleviate ecological and environmental problems, it can promote higher quality integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations. On the basis of sorting theories and mechanisms of green development, this paper develops an indicator evaluation system of green development with six dimensions as scientific and technological innovation, economic growth, resource utilization, environmental governance, environmental quality, and green life, and measures and analyzes the spatial-temporal evolutionary characteristics and future change trends of green development level in Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations from 2006 to 2019 by using Entropy Method, Kernel Density Estimation, and BP Time Series Forecast Model. Research results show that: during the study period: (1) the green development level of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations showed a fluctuating increase in general, and the green development level of some cities declined in 2008-2009 and 2011-2013 due to financial crisis and industrial transfer. (2) green development level between cities had gradually prominent discrepancies, with polarization and a tendency to tripolarization, meanwhile the spatial distribution is uneven. (3) during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, the green development level will increase further, and it will be improved in the northern and southern regions, but still remain at a low level in the western region. (4) the grade transfer of green development level occurs between adjacent grades, with no “grade skipping” phenomenon and indicating that there is a “bottleneck” of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations. Finally, based on the regional characteristics of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations, this paper proposes corresponding suggestions for green development.

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