长江流域资源与环境 >> 2022, Vol. 31 >> Issue (5): 1016-1028.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202205007

• 区域可持续发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

人口收缩视角下湖北省县域经济社会的空间变化探析

张  静,唐晓超   

  1. (湖北省社会科学院长江流域经济研究所, 湖北 武汉 430077)
  • 出版日期:2022-05-20 发布日期:2022-06-02

An Analysis of the Spatial Changes of County Economy and Society in Hubei Province from the Perspective of Population Shrinkage

ZHANG Jing,TANG Xiao-chao   

  1. (Institute of Economic Research on Changjiang River Valley,Hubei Academy of Social Sciences, Wuhan 430077,China)
  • Online:2022-05-20 Published:2022-06-02

摘要: 人口收缩已经成为我国区域高质量发展与新型城镇化进程中面临的重大议题与挑战。利用2000~2015年湖北省人口相关数据,展开对湖北省91个县级行政单位2000~2006、2006~2010和2010~2015年3个时期的人口收缩空间变化特征研究,并进一步对人口变化过程中的经济与空间维度的演变格局进行交叉分析,同时利用时空加权地理回归模型探究人口收缩的影响机制。研究表明:(1)2000~2015年,湖北省共57个县(市、区)出现人口收缩,其中6个县(市、区)出现城镇人口收缩、72个县(市、区)出现乡村人口收缩。2006年以后湖北各县(市、区)总人口与城镇收缩现象得到改善,形成了城镇人口长期增长、乡村人口持续收缩的格局。(2)从经济和空间维度上看,随着城镇化和人口回流,湖北省整体经济水平与经济密度持续提升,但经济热点未形成对周边县(市、区)的扩散带动效应。部分县(市、区)前期建设用地规划不合理出现空间收缩的问题,后期建设用地利用趋于集约理性化。(3)在影响因素上,产业结构>政府投入>人口结构>市场规模,各项因素在不同地区分别呈现出不同强度的影响力。最后从区域战略布局、产业结构优化升级、推进以人为核心的城镇化、提升地区发展品质和优化财政支出结构等几个方面提出人口收缩的应对策略。

Abstract: In China, population shrinkage has become a major issue and challenge during the process of regional high-quality development and new urbanization. Based on the Hubei Province population-related data from 2000 to 2015, this paper focuses on the spatial change characteristics of population shrinkage in 91 county-level administrative units to cross-analyzs the evolution pattern in the economic and spatial dimensions of each county during the process of population change, and studies the impact mechanism of population shrinkage with geographically and temporally weighted regression(GTWR)model. The study draws the following conclusions: (1) From 2000 to 2015, a total of 57  counties (cities and districts)  in Hubei Province experienced population shrinkage, of which 6  counties (cities and districts)  experienced urban population shrinkage, and 72  counties (cities and districts)  experienced rural population shrinkage.Since 2006, the total population and urban shrinkage in Hubei Province have decreased, forming a pattern of long-term urban population growth and rural population shrinking. (2) From the perspective of economic and spatial dimensions, urbanization and Return migration have improved the overall economic level and economic density. However, the economic hot spots have not formed a proliferation effect on its surrounding areas. In some areas, the unreasonable construction land planning caused space shrinkage in the early stage,and tends to be intensive and rational in the later stage. (3)The impact degree of influencing factors, industrial structure>government investment>population structure>market size, various factors form different influence in different regions.Finally,several strategies for coping with population shrinkage are proposed such as coordinate regional strategic layout,optimization and upgrading of industrial structure,promotion of human-centered urbanization, improvement of regional development quality and optimization of fiscal expenditure structure.

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