长江流域资源与环境 >> 2023, Vol. 32 >> Issue (12): 2528-2541.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202312007

• 自然资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于经济社会发展阶段转型的土地利用变化驱动因素识别——以长江中游地区为例

张超正1,陈丹玲2*,靳亚亚1,杨钢桥2,张  寒1   

  1. (1.西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,陕西 杨凌 712100;2.华中农业大学公共管理学院,湖北 武汉 430070)
  • 出版日期:2023-12-20 发布日期:2023-12-25

Identification of Driving Forces of Land Use Change Based on Transition of Economic-Social Development Stage: Evidence from Middle Reaches of  Yangtze River

ZHANG Chao-zheng1, CHEN Dan-ling2, JIN Ya-ya1, YANG Gang-qiao2, ZHANG Han1   

  1. (1. College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China;2. College of Public Administration, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China)
  • Online:2023-12-20 Published:2023-12-25

摘要: 从区域经济社会发展阶段识别及其转型过程划分入手,采用最小二乘模型、空间滞后模型和空间误差模型识别长江中游地区土地利用变化驱动因素。结果表明:(1)2000~2018年,长江中游地区经济社会发展阶段存在“由初级产品生产阶段Ⅱ期向工业化中期转型,城镇化缓慢发展与人口严重外流期(2000~2010年)”和“由工业化中期向工业化后期转型,城镇化稳步发展与人口持续回流期(2010~2018年)”两大转型过程。(2)就土地利用变化总体特征而言,2000~2018年以耕地和生态用地面积显著缩减、建设用地持续增加和未利用地面积相对稳定为主。就土地利用变化过程特征而言,2000~2010年以耕地和林地相互转化,耕地向建设用地和水域转化,以及水域向湿地转化为主;2010~2018年以耕地和建设用地相互转化,林地向建设用地和耕地转化,以及湿地向水域转化为主。(3)2000~2010年仅地形位指数是导致该时段5种主要土地利用变化类型的共性驱动因素,而2010~2018年地形位指数、人均GDP变化、总人口变化以及距主要公路距离是导致该时段5种主要土地利用变化类型的共性驱动因素。因此,应充分考虑各种土地利用变化类型的主要驱动因素及其经济社会发展规律和空间地域分异规律,让土地利用变化与区域自然地理环境和经济社会发展阶段转型过程相适应。

Abstract: Starting with the stage identification and transformation process division of regional economic-social development, this paper explored the driving forces of land use change in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River (MRYR), by using the least square model, spatial lag model, and spatial error model. The results indicated that: (1) The economic-social development stage of the MRYR have undergone two transition processes during 2000-2018. The first was from the primary production stage II to the middle industrialization stage, with slow growth of urbanization and serious outflow of population, the corresponding period was 2000-2010. The second was from the middle industrialization stage to the late industrialization stage, with steady growth of urbanization and continuous return of population, the corresponding period was 2010-2018. (2) In terms of overall characteristics of land use change, the cultivated land and ecological land continued to decrease, the construction land area continued to increase, and the unused land area remained relatively stable during 2000-2018. In terms of process characteristics of land use change in 2000-2010, cultivated land and forest land were transformed into each other. The major changes were that cultivated land was transformed into construction land and water area, and water area was transformed to wetland. In 2010-2018, cultivated land and construction land were transformed to each other, forest land was transformed to construction land and cultivated land, and wetland was transformed to water area. (3) In 2000-2010, topographic index was the sole common driving factor of five main types of land use change. In 2010-2018, topographic index, per capita GDP change, total population change, and distance from main roads became the common driving factors. Therefore, the government should fully consider the main drivers of various types of land use change, as well as their laws of economic-social development and geographical differentiation, so that land use change could be better adapted to regional natural environmental conditions and economic-social development stage.

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