长江流域资源与环境 >> 2026, Vol. 35 >> Issue (2): 455-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202602014

• 生态环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于土地利用变化的皖江流域景观生态风险评价与模拟预测研究

王成,夏宇,苏强,彭涛,陈贺贺,孙公波,申志恒,王彬   

  1. (安徽农业大学经济管理学院,安徽 合肥 230036)
  • 出版日期:2026-02-20 发布日期:2026-02-26

Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment and Simulation Prediction in the Wanjiang River Basin based on Land Use Change

WANG Cheng,XIA Yu,SU Qiang,PENG Tao,CHEN He-he,SUN Gong-bo,SHEN Zhi-heng,WANG Bin   

  1. (School of Economics and Management, Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei 230036, China)
  • Online:2026-02-20 Published:2026-02-26

摘要: 随着皖江流域加速融入长三角经济区,流域内经济社会发展对土地利用的影响不断加深,其对区域景观生态风险的影响也逐渐引起关注。以皖江流域作为研究区域,基于1990~2020年四期土地利用数据,运用景观格局指数建立的景观生态风险评价模型,开展皖江流域景观生态风险评价分析,利用PLUS模型,模拟流域2030年土地利用变化,分析不同土地利用情景下景观生态风险演变。研究结果表明:(1)研究区主要用地类型是耕地和林地,1990~2020年建设用地增加665.4 km2,耕地、林地面积减少539、105.04 km2。(2)研究区景观生态风险以低、较低风险为主,高生态风险区域面积呈上升趋势。(3)基于PLUS模型的模拟发现,在城市发展情景下建设用地面积增长最多,为333.3 km2,耕地面积减少最多,为248.3 km2。(4)城市发展情景下,低风险区面积占比减少近64.15%,中风险区面积占比增加60.52%;生态保护情景下,较低、中生态风险面积占比增加近4%。研究基于景观生态风险评价结果和多情景预测结果,可为皖江流域地区生态风险控制提供数据支持,为优化地区景观格局、促进社会经济可持续发展和生态文明建设提供重要参考。

Abstract: With the acceleration of the integration of the Wanjiang River Basin into the Yangtze River Delta Economic Zone, the impact of economic and social development on land use in the basin has been deepening, and its impact on the regional landscape ecological risk has gradually attracted attention.Therefore, this study selected the Wanjiang River Basin as the research scope, based on the land use data of the fourth period from 1990 to 2020, and used the landscape ecological risk assessment model established by the landscape pattern index to carry out the landscape ecological risk assessment analysis of the Wanjiang River Basin, and used the PLUS model to simulate the land use change in the basin in 2030 and analyze the evolution of landscape ecological risk under different land use scenarios.The results show that: (1) The main types of land use in the study area are cultivated land and forest land, and the construction land increased by 665.4 km2 from 1990 to 2020, while the area of cultivated land and forest land decreased by 539 km2 and 105.04 km2.(2) The landscape ecological risk in the study area was mainly low and low risk, and the area of high ecological risk area showed an upward trend.(3) Based on the PLUS model, the simulation results show that under the urban development scenario, the area of construction land increases the most, which is 333.3 km2, and the area of cultivated land decreases the most, which is 248.3 km2.(4) Under the urban development scenario, the proportion of low-risk areas decreased by nearly 64.15%, and the proportion of medium-risk areas increased by 60.52%.Under the ecological protection scenario, the proportion of low and medium ecological risk areas increased by nearly 4%.Based on the results of landscape ecological risk assessment and multi-scenario prediction, this study can provide useful information for ecological risk control in the Wanjiang River Basin, and provide a reference for optimizing the regional landscape pattern, promoting sustainable social and economic development and ecological civilization construction.

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