综合性能源价格指数对中国省域碳强度的调节作用及其比较——来自30个省份面板数据的实证分析

doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201606003

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在构建综合性能源价格指数的基础上,基于1995~2012年我国30个省份相关历史数据,通过面板数据模型和层次聚类法分析了省域能源价格对碳强度的静态和动态调节作用。结果表明:能源价格通过影响产业结构、技术水平、能源强度对碳强度分别产生了0.576%、0.048%和0.787%的作用,但经由前两个路径产生的作用大于路径变量本身的直接影响,其中结构路径的作用提高了44.4%,技术路径变动不大,而经由能源强度对碳强度产生的影响较其本身降低了7.91%。总体来看,能源价格的合理上升有利于节能减排,但价格对碳强度的杠杆作用表现出明显的区域差异性。此外,煤炭资源税的征收对降低碳强度也有明显的效果,且具有较大增长空间。按照价格杠杆作用的差异,相关省份可以被划分为调节作用弱、较弱、中、较强、强五类。东部和中东部省份能源价格变动的碳抑制作用明显高于西部和中西部省份。

关键词: 能源价格指数, 碳强度, 节能减排

Abstract: Since there is no united energy price index in China, this paper constructs a comprehensive energy price index that combines industrial and nonindustrial price indices and can reflect the regional difference. Based on this, with the methods of Panel Date Model and Hierarchical Cluster analysis, this paper constructs the direct, regulatory and dynamic models respectively to test the effect of energy price lever on carbon intensity using 30 provinces' related historical data during 1995-2012 in China. The result shows that: firstly, energy price can impact on carbon intensity through industrial structure, technical level and energy intensity, the depressing effect is 0.576% 0.048%, and 0.787% respectively. Secondly, compare with the direct effect, carbon depressing effects of the former two paths are improved when considering regulatory effect of price lever, in which effect of structure path improved by 44.4%. And there are few changes of technology path. However, the depressing effect of reducing energy intensity decreases by 7.91%. Thirdly, carbon intensity has certain inertia, provincial carbon intensity of last year has a certain influence of it in current year, and the effect is about 70%. Under this condition, when regulatory effect of price lever is considered, carbon depressing effect of industrial structure optimization and energy intensity reduction is far more significant than technology improvement. It indicates that the reductions of carbon emission mainly relay on structure path in short term, but technology improvement is the key in the long run. In general, a reasonable rising energy price benefits energy saving and emission reduction, but the price leverage effect on carbon intensity shows obvious regional difference. Besides, resource tax also has significant effect on carbon intensity decreasing. According to the difference of price leverage, considering the effect of coal tax policy, provinces in China can be divided into five categories: weak, relatively weak, medium, relatively strong, and strong regulatory effect. In the sample period, depressing effect of energy price on carbon emission energy price in eastern and mid-eastern provinces is greater than that in western and mid-western provinces. Generally speaking, there is no direct relationship between the effect of price lever on carbon intensity and regional economic development, but it is influenced by economic development speed, provincial carbon intensity, technical conversion efficiency, characteristics of energy production and consumption and etc.. Besides, in the region with high market level, regulatory effect of price lever on carbon intensity is relatively high, while effect of tax policy is limited; conversely, in the region with low market level, depressing effect of tax policy on carbon intensity if significant, and regulating effect of price lever has not brought into full play.

Key words: energy price index, carbon intensity, energy saving and emission reduction

中图分类号:

F429.9

何凌云, 杨雪杰, 尹芳, 钟章奇, 金里程. 综合性能源价格指数对中国省域碳强度的调节作用及其比较——来自30个省份面板数据的实证分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2016, 25(06): 877-888.

HE Ling-yun, YANG Xue-jie, YIN Fang, ZHONG Zhang-qi, JIN Li-cheng. REGULATORY EFFECT AND ITS COMPARISON OF COMPREHENSIVE ENERGY PRICE INDICES ON CHINESE PROVINCIAL CARBON INTENSITY: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS BASED ON 30 PROVINCES' PANEL DATA[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2016, 25(06): 877-888.

参考文献

[1] 陈广玉. 美国碳强度指标走势及其对中国的启示[J]. 中外能源, 2011, 16(2): 17-22. [CHEN G Y. Trends in US carbon intensity indicator and enlightenment to China[J]. Sino-Global Energy, 2011, 16(2): 17-22.]
[2] 张友国. 碳强度与总量约束的绩效比较: 基于CGE模型的分析[J]. 世界经济, 2013(7): 138-160. [ZHANG Y G. Performance comparison between carbon intensity and total volume constraints: an analysis based on CGE model[J]. World Economy, 2013(7): 138-160.]
[3] FAN Y, LIU L C, WU G, et al. Changes in carbon intensity in China: empirical findings from 1980-2003[J]. Ecological Economics, 2007, 62(3/4): 683-691.
[4] 王锋, 冯根福. 优化能源结构对实现中国碳强度目标的贡献潜力评估[J]. 中国工业经济, 2011(4): 127-137. [WANG F, FENG G F. Contribution of improving energy mix to carbon intensity target in China: potential assessment[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2011(4): 127-137.]
[5] 王平, 刘致秀, 朱帮助, 等. 能源结构优化对广东省碳强度目标的贡献潜力[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2013, 23(4): 49-54. [WANG P, LIU Z X, ZHU B Z, et al. Potential assessment of optimizing energy structure to carbon intensity target in Guangdong Province[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2013, 23(4): 49-54.]
[6] ZHOU L, ZHANG X L, QI T Y, et al. Regional disaggregation of China's national carbon intensity reduction target by reduction pathway analysis[J]. Energy for Sustainable Development, 2014, 23: 25-31.
[7] 傅京燕, 裴前丽. 中国对外贸易对碳排放量的影响及其驱动因素的实证分析[J]. 财贸经济, 2012(5): 75-81. [FU J Y, PEI Q L. The influence and driving factors of foreign trade on China's CO2 emission[J]. Finance & Trade Economics, 2012(5): 75-81.]
[8] CAO J, KARPLUS V J. Firm-level determinants of energy and carbon intensity in China[J]. Energy Policy, 2014, 75: 167-178.
[9] GONZÁLEZ D, MARTíNEZ M. Decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions in the Mexican industrial sector[J]. Energy for Sustainable Development, 2012, 16(2): 204-215.
[10] 冯宗宪, 王凯莹. 中国省域碳强度集群的空间统计分析[J]. 资源科学, 2014, 36(7): 1462-1468. [FENG Z X, WANG K Y. Spatial cluster analysis of provincial carbon intensity in China[J]. Resources Science, 2014, 36(7): 1462-1468.]
[11] LONG R Y, YANG R R, SONG M L, et al. Measurement and calculation of carbon intensity based on ImPACT model and scenario analysis: a case of three regions of Jiangsu province[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2015, 51: 180-190.
[12] 孙焱林, 李华磊. 中国消减碳强度的路径选择: 国际比较的视角[J]. 经济学家, 2015(2), 63-71. [SUN Y L, LI H L. Path selection for reducing carbon intensity in China: a perspective on international comparison[J]. Economist, 2015(2): 63-71.]
[13] 岳超, 胡雪洋, 贺灿飞, 等. 1995-2007年我国省区碳排放及碳强度的分析-碳排放与社会发展Ⅲ[J]. 北京大学学报(自然科学版), 2010, 46(4): 510-516. [YUE C, HU X Y, HE C F, et al. Provincial carbon emissions and carbon intensity in China from 1995 to 2007 (carbon emissions and social development, Ⅲ)[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 2010, 46(4): 510-516.]
[14] FISHER-VANDEN K, JEFFERSON G H, LIU H M, et al. What is driving China's decline in energy intensity?[J]. Resource and Energy Economics, 2004, 26(1): 77-97.
[15] ALDY J E. Per capita carbon dioxide emissions: convergence or divergence?[J]. Environmental and Resource Economics, 2006, 33(4): 533-555.
[16] 王素凤. 中国省域能源价格与碳强度协整研究: 基于1995~2009年的面板数据[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2011, 20(8): 922-927.[WANG S F. Cointegration between energy prices and carbon dioxide intensity of China: provincial panel data over 1995~2009J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2011, 20(8): 922-927.]
[17] 陈凯, 佟昕. 中国碳排放强度与影响因素的关联分析[J]. 技术经济与管理研究, 2014(11): 9-12. [CHEN K, TONG X. The correlation analysis of carbon emissions and its influencing factors in China[J]. Technoeconomics & Management Research, 2014(11): 9-12.]
[18] WELSCH H. The determinants of production-related carbon emissions in West Germany, 1985-1990: assessing the role of technology and trade[J]. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 2001, 12(4): 25-455.
[19] 王素凤. 华东地区能源价格与碳强度的协整分析[J]. 统计与决策, 2011(12): 81-84. [WANG S F. Cointegration analysis of energy price and carbon intensity in East China[J]. Statistics and Decision, 2011(12): 81-84.]
[20] 郭平, 陈权宝. 我国区域能源价格和碳排放强度异质动态关系研究[J]. 科技管理研究, 2014(9): 220-226. [GUO P, CHEN Q B. Research on heterogeneous dynamic relationship between energy price and carbon emission intensity in different regions of China[J]. Science and Technology Management Research, 2014(9): 220-226.]
[21] DAVIDSDOTTIR B, FISHER M. The odd couple: the relationship between state economic performance and carbon emissions economic intensity[J]. Energy Policy, 2011, 39(8): 4551-4562.
[22] FANG Y P, DANG W. Affecting elements and regional variables based on the objective of carbon intensity reduction in China[J]. International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, 2011, 18(2): 109-117.
[23] 孙欣, 张可蒙. 中国碳排放强度影响因素实证分析[J]. 统计研究, 2014, 31(2): 61-67. [SUN X, ZHANG K M. The empirical analysis on influence factors of carbon emission intensity in China[J]. Statistical Research, 2014, 31(2): 61-67.]
[24] EBOHON O J, IKEME A J. Decomposition analysis of CO2 emission intensity between oil-producing and non-oil-producing sub-Saharan African countries[J]. Energy Policy, 2006, 34(18): 3599-3611.
[25] 朱勤, 彭希哲, 陆志明, 等. 中国能源消费碳排放变化的因素分解及实证分析[J]. 资源科学, 2009, 31(12): 2072-2079. [ZHU Q, PENG X Z, LU Z M, et al. Factors decomposition and empirical analysis of variations in energy carbon emission in China[J]. Resources Science, 2009, 31(12): 2072-2079.]
[26] PRINDLE B, ZARNIKAU J, ALLIS E. Barriers and policy solutions to energy efficiency as a carbon emissions reduction strategy[M]//SIOSHANSI F P. Generating Electricity in A Carbon-Constrained World. Boston: Academic Press, 2010: 207-239.
[27] 周五七, 聂鸣. 中国碳排放强度影响因素的动态计量检验[J]. 管理科学, 2012, 25(5): 99-107. [ZHOU W Q, NIE M. A dynamic econometric test on influential factors of carbon emission intensity in China[J]. Journal of Management Science, 2012, 25(5): 99-107.]
[28] 王韶华, 于维洋. 一次能源消费结构变动对碳强度影响的灵敏度分析[J]. 资源科学, 2013, 35(7): 1438-1446. [WANG S H, YU W Y. Sensitivity analysis of primary energy consumption structural change and carbon intensity[J]. Resources Science, 2013, 35(7): 1438-1446.]
[29] CHEN L J, LU L J, TAI M Y, et al. Energy structure, energy policy, and economic sustainable development[J]. International Review of Economics & Finance, 2014, 34: 203-210.
[30] 张友国. 经济发展方式变化对中国碳排放强度的影响[J]. 经济研究, 2010(4): 120-133. [ZHANG Y G. Economic development pattern change impact on China's carbon intensity[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2010(4): 120-133.]
[31] GINGRICH S, KUSKOVA P, STEINBERGER J K. Long-term changes in CO2 emissions in Austria and Czechoslovakia-Identifying the drivers of environmental pressures[J]. Energy Policy, 2011, 39(2): 535-543.
[32] 孙稳存. 能源冲击对中国宏观经济的影响[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2007, 27(2): 31-36. [SUN W C. Effects of energy shock on Chinese macro-economy[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2007(2): 31-36.]
[33] 张欢, 成金华. 中国能源价格变动与居民消费水平的动态效应-基于VAR模型和SVAR模型的检验[J]. 资源科学, 2011, 33(5): 806-813. [ZHANG H, CHENG J H. Dynamic effect of China's energy price fluctuations and resident consumption levels: verification based on the VAR model and SVAR model[J]. Resources Science, 2011, 33(5): 806-813.]
[34] BERK I, YETKINER H. Energy prices and economic growth in the long run: theory and evidence[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2014, 36: 228-235.
[35] 陶小马, 邢建武, 黄鑫, 等. 中国工业部门的能源价格扭曲与要素替代研究[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 2009(11): 3-16.[TAO X M, XING J W, HUANG X, et al. The measurement of energy price distortions and factor substitution in Chinese industry[J]. The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics, 2009(11): 3-16.]
[36] YUAN C Q, LIU S F, WU J L. The relationship among energy prices and energy consumption in China[J]. Energy Policy, 2010, 38(1): 197-207.
[37] 任泽平. 能源价格波动对中国物价水平的潜在与实际影响[J]. 经济研究, 2012(8): 59-69, 92. [REN Z P. The potential and actual impact of energy price increase to general price level in China[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2012(8): 59-69, 92.]
[38] 吴丽华, 傅广敏. 能源价格变动对一般价格水平的传导影响[J]. 当代经济科学, 2014, 36(5): 81-127. [WU L H, FU G M. The effect of energy price changes on the general price level[J]. Contemporary Economic Science, 2014, 36(5): 81-127.]
[39] FERREIRA P, SOARES I, ARAUJO M L. Liberalisation, consumption heterogeneity and the dynamics of energy prices[J]. Energy Policy, 2005, 33(17): 2244-2255.
[40] 林柏强, 王锋. 能源价格上涨对中国一般价格水平的影响[J]. 经济研究, 2009(12): 66-79, 150. [LIN B Q, WANG F. Impact of energy price increase on general price level in China: a study based on input-output model and recursive SVAR model[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2009(12): 66-79, 150.]
[41] 陈刚, 余燕春. 能源约束对出口贸易结构影响的实证分析[J]. 国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报), 2009(3): 10-15. [CHEN G, YU Y C. An empirical study on the effect of energy constraints on exporting trade structure[J]. International Business (Journal of University of International Business and Economics), 2009(3): 10-15.]
[42] BRETSCHGER L. Energy prices, growth, and the channels in between: theory and evidence[J]. Resource and Energy Economics, 2015, 39: 29-52.
[43] 孙宁华, 江学迪. 能源价格与中国宏观经济: 动态模型与校准分析[J]. 南开经济研究, 2012(2): 20-32. [SUN N H, JIANG X D. Energy price and macroeconomy: dynamic model and calibration[J]. Nankai Economic Studies, 2012(2): 20-32.]
[44] 冯泰文, 孙林岩, 何哲. 技术进步对中国能源强度调节效应的实证研究[J]. 科学学研究, 2008, 26(5): 987-993. [FENG T W, SUN L Y, HE Z. An empirical study of technology progress moderating effect on energy intensity in China[J]. Studies in Science of Science, 2008, 26(5): 987-993.]
[45] 姚奕, 倪勤. 中国地区碳强度与FDI的空间计量分析-基于空间面板模型的实证研究[J]. 经济地理, 2011, 31(9): 1432-1438. [YAO Y, NI Q. The impact of foreign direct investment on carbon intensity empirical study based on Chinese provincial dynamic panel data[J]. Economic Geography, 2011, 31(9): 1432-1438.]
[46] 邵帅, 杨莉莉. 自然资源开发、内生技术进步与区域经济增长[J]. 经济研究, 2011(S2): 112-123. [SHAO S, YANG L L. Natural resource exploitation, endogenous technological progress and regional economic growth[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2011(S2): 112-123.]
[47] 张宗益, 呙小明, 汪锋. 能源价格上涨对中国第三产业能源效率的冲击-基于VAR模型的实证分析[J]. 管理评论, 2010, 22(6): 61-70. [ZHANG Z Y, WO X M, WANG F. Energy price impacts on energy efficiency of the tertiary industry in China-a VAR-model based empirical study[J]. Management Review, 2010, 22(6): 61-70.]
[48] 周杰琦. 中国碳强度的收敛性及其影响因素研究[J]. 广东财经大学学报, 2014, 29(2): 12-20. [ZHOU J Q. Research on the convergence of carbon intensity in China and its influencing factors[J]. Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, 2014, 29(2): 12-20.]

Metrics

Viewed

Full text

Abstract

Cited

Shared

Discussed