Abstract: Water resources vulnerability is an important criterion to measure the carrying capacity of water resources system under the influence of climate change and human activities. And assessment and prediction of water resources vulnerability in river basins is an important means for assessing water security and identifying problems in future water resources systems. Firstly, the evaluation index system of water resources vulnerability in the Yellow River Basin is constructed, and rough set method is used to reduce the dimension of the original index system and remove redundant attributes. Second, the standard value of the dimension-reduced evaluation index is taken as the evaluation sample, and the support vector regression (SVR) model is used to evaluate the vulnerability of water resources in the basin. Finally, three different climate models and socio-economic scenarios are set for scenario prediction of water resources vulnerability in the Yellow River Basin. The results show that the water resources vulnerability of the Yellow River Basin has been raised from level Ⅴ to level Ⅳ in the past 16 years. The water resources vulnerability of the Yellow River Basin under scenario 1 and scenario 2 will be improved in the future, but it is still in the level Ⅳ of moderate vulnerability. In the future, the water quality vulnerability and disaster vulnerability will be improved obviously, and the water shortage vulnerability will not be improved significantly. Under scenario 3, the water quality vulnerability will deteriorate to grade Ⅴ medium-high vulnerability. Therefore, in the future, taking active control measures can make water quality and disaster vulnerability significantly improved, and water shortage vulnerability will become the bottleneck restricting the overall water resources vulnerability of future basins.