关键词: 城市基础设施, 现代化, 评价, 预测, 宁波市

Abstract: The article establishes an index system to evaluate the infrastructure modernization level of Ningbo City, with consideration to the following five specific aspectstraffic, energy and water supply, infotelecommunications, environmental sanitation and drainage system. All the data involved were obtained during the period from 1997 to 2003, selected to make quantitative evaluation on the current infrastructure modernization of Ningbo City. In terms of the actual construction of the city, this article also reveals what has already been achieved and what still needs to be improved in the city′s infrastructure modernization.Then based on the application of the gray systematic prediction model, the authors make a prediction on the process of the infrastructure modernization of Ningbo City and the result indicates that in 2005, Ningbo City will have taken on a rudimentary form of a modernized city with its comprehensive index of infrastructure modernization reaching the percentage of 83.8, and in the intermediate year 2010, Ningbo City will have attained a rather high modernization level with its comprehensive index reaching the high percentage of 95.0, but there will still be a distance to go before Ningbo City basically realizes its infrastructure modernization. The article lastly makes four suggestions on how to promote the modernization of infrastructure construction of Ningbo City.

Key words: city infrastructure, modernization, evaluation, prediction, Ningbo City